From a timing standpoint, even if he was good to go now Greg would kind of be a wash for both Indiana (first game back) and Denver (sore, 2nd game of a back to back). Putting aside the truth that the more hands on deck the better, in neither game based on matchups does Oden's presence look absolutely necessary. Two games where he really would have been helpful are the Dallas and L(ker games, two Western opponents coming to the Garden who Portland can and should beat to defend home and capitalize on that advantage. Flatly put, if Portland beats nearly all comers at home, and beats the chumps no matter where they play, they can lose out against the West elites and still maintain their slot range (3-6) in my view. Everybody else except Cleveland who's beaten the Blazers has also tasted defeat, beyond LA and Dallas. Considering Portland's nose for the revenge game, it can happen without him--but Oden's absence will make life easier for Nowitzki and Gasol. Beyond that, the Nets and Timberwolves are not threats if the Blazers come to play--so out of the whole rest of the season if we accept the wait time of a week or 10 days. Oden's slow heal MIGHT cost the difference in two games. Still, those are two pretty big games as far as positioning goes. But here's the thing: even healthy, how long will it take for the rest of the team to adjust back to the very different style of play they use with Oden in the game--and will it mean that the rest of the Blazers will return also to their habits when he was a regular on the court? Could he mesh back into the system enough by the L%ker and Dallas games to be a positive force, or might he actually gum up the works? It pains me to say it, because I continue to believe 100% in Oden's potential and both statistically and in several games on the court, he is already a force of nature inside the paint, changing the way both teams play actually. But the return of Blake and the dominance of Przybilla in Oden's absence have put grease on the team's flow--that one is now a little frightened to tinker with! Even that is a superficial thing though; there will be an inevitable re-sync period no matter when he returns, and overall simply the sooner the better. But I think there's a longer-term and more subtle benefit, albeit one we've talked about here in the last few games: Oden's absence is forcing guys like LaMarcus and Outlaw to step up inside, and Joel is discovering that if you bark and shame your teammates a little when they blow their defense and make you double up on THEIR guy, they DO actually seem to reposition and hustle more. With Greg in the game, LaMarcus doesn't have to really fight for bounds unless he's in position. If there is a basketball airborne in the box, for the most part Greg will take it, as long as he's standing there. And Travis REALLY doesn't feel the need to help weakside or use his beautiful elevation to challenge for that board. We have seen the results of the new ethic and execution. Remember when we wondered why all the Blazers ran were jumpshots and isos? They still do a lot of that, but the last couple of games have seen some great pick and roll moves, and just sharp passing to the cutter, as well as smart rotationss that pass up the easy shot for the totally ridic easy shot. (Exhibit A as to how we know Travis is learning). Blake started the brashness by continuing to feed Joel even if Joel has shown a tendency to botch the ball out of bounds on those feeds sometimes. Everyone seems to look down sadly. "Poor Joel. Such a hardworking boy, to be stocking while his younger cousin runs the business." But stick with him and he'll pay off for you eventually, and they've made cutting to the hole an enjoyable adventure. That got LMA wanting to be involved, and then Sergio saw what was going on and rifled a couple of his own cutters to his man Chan on consecutive attempts. And when Joel or Roy yells, the rookies and even guys like Sergio and Travis are listening. If he can keep it up, I'm so hopeful for Travis. He's still far from perfect in his execution, but he is less and less just standing there while people blow by him. Or at least, they blow by him (cough--Longoria!) it's because he's not a very good defender and not because he's dogging it. Call it basketball tough love: if you can't help Greg not commit cheapass fouls trying to catch up to the people you let pass, then enjoy your game getting jammed in the lane and missing a bunch of contested jumpers, because you're not going to learn what you need to know to compete at crunch time in the NBA. It's very possible then, that Oden's continued absence may actually buy a little valuable in-season time to work on those fundamentals and force themselves not to count on Oden's presence in the lane--so that when he does return, he can more quickly return his skills to a higher level now that the silliness of truly poor defense is being successfully addressed. Feeling better? Then I won't tell you this story about Martell getting his foot looked at today as the boot comes off--and if it isn't time, scuttlebutt is he's definitely gone for the year. (Oh man, that's cruel, isn't it? I'm bad.) |
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