| Across Oregon, after the question "Should U of O end up ahead of Boise if they both win out" I'm sure the most popular sports fan worry is "WTF with the Blazers?" It's way early yet, and 2-3 is hardly a disaster--but there are some evil portents and recurrences of past problems that should leave many Blazers fans unsettled if not actually panicked. You'll notice I did not muster a game recap for the Hawks debacle Tuesday (nor the win in OKC or the loss in Houston, but I'm likely to cover fewer away games and losses anyway); it was partly a lack of free time, partly a lack of general motivation to write on ANY subject--but also a fear that I'd try to keep perspective on things, but fail miserably and begin ranting wildly about the poor start and the implications for the rest of the season. Because to be honest, I'm a little fearful that the 09-10 season could well be something of a disappointment, in that the string of improvements with each season since ditching the Bad Blazers will come to an end and the team will retrench a little. Not a lot, not to the point of missing the playoffs (I don't think)--but remember this is a team that won 54 games, tied for the division title and had a homecourt playoff series. It's unfortunately VERY easy for me to imagine a scenario where things don't gel quickly enough, and you end up with a 49-50 win season and a 5/6 seed. Still good, and not prohibitive of greater overall success--but I think most fans are expecting at least one series win this year in postseason. I don't want to break down the ugly details exhaustively, but there are some warning signs I don't like: - Greg Oden looks faster, looks smarter, and is THIS close not only to becoming a serious full-time beast on defense, but a legitimate points producer on offense. But partially through his own performances, and partially in my opinion due to the "rep" he developed around the league, he is replicating the frustrating pattern from last season: too many fouls, not enough minutes. And I sure hope his intermittent bout with fumble-hands in the lane doesn't mean he's trying to learn EVERYTHING Joel does.
- Martell seems to have stepped up his defense some, but it needs more improvement, and it would be a tall order anyway to ask for a level of play equal to what Nic Batum can do on D. Adjusting to life without Nic's minutes has been more of an issue than many have realized, I think. And there are signs of Martell's shot being there, but it still looks rather rusty.
- Steve Blake and Andre Miller are competing to see who can miss more shots, and fail to make more defensive rotations--and they look more like Washington Generals instead of distributive generals right now. If I had to pick one area that's most responsible for the current state of play, it's the PG play. Some of it has been due to opposing players really catching fire, like Jamal Crawford, but just because they're torching other teams too (Crawford I think dumped in 27 the night after killing us), doesn't get us closer to the W.
- So far I can barely tell the players WITH a program--many, many lineups! I mentioned after the Denver game that we saw Twin Towers, No Towers, 3-guard, etc., and the personnel under those alignments has been constantly shifting too. And let's not forget that this team looks different on the floor from last year: Miller instead of Bayless, Martell instead of Batum, Oden instead of Joel, Juwon Howard with a lot of early minutes...no wonder they can't find any rhythm!
- Perhaps the unsettled lineups is the reason, but the whole team often looks...hesitant. The best example I can think of is LaMarcus on Tuesday, in the 2nd quarter as the Hawks defenders laid off him in the middle of the key...and you could see the wheels spinning in LMA's head: take it? Pass? Dribble? By the time he made up his mind to shoot, his shot was mechanically off, and so no bucket.
There are probably some more facets to discuss and consider, but the overall view is that they're not playing as a team yet. I think everyone knows their role in the abstract, and it's not about egos fighting for minutes or stats, but that mind-over-muscle flow just isn't there yet, and it's costing them games. As I said, it's not necessarily a portent of disaster; the team was below .500 the first few games last year as well. On the other hand, that was a younger team with a uniquely brutal start to the season. On raw talent, this team should be at worst 3-2 IMO, but honestly 4-1 was not an outsized expectation. So as the team hosts San Antonio tonight and tries to shake their 1-2 home start, watch and see how some of these early difficulties play out. If they continue, we could be staring at 1-3 for Minnesota on Sunday. But it WILL click, and when it does it will happen suddenly, so go or watch/listen tonight with hope and positive feelings. It's a long season, and these aren't robots, they're humans--young kids really. I worry, but I still love. |
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