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Novick Announces "Significant Endorsement" at 11 AM

by: torridjoe

Mon Dec 03, 2007 at 07:45:00 AM PST


Some endorsements are better than others. With the possible (and bizarre) exception of Sen. Avel Gordly, the "Democrats for Smith" list of endorsements was in some cases not even of Democrats, or a Democrat actually for Smith. Other endorsements are better; the two governors that Merkley got, and got early, were strong sentinels to party Democrats around the state that this was the guy to back. Some are in between--it's impressive that so many colleagues of Merkley's back him for Senate...except that they're all colleagues (and in 30 cases really subordinates to) Jeff Merkley.

But the Novick campaign has prepared folks for what they term a "significant" endorsement, and if my belief in who it is turns out correctly, it could indeed be significant. I think they've bagged some kind of maverick with a good history in state politics, someone who will signal to all the people looking for a sign to be bold with their vote and choose the change candidate--a guy (or woman!) who says "no, THIS is the guy to back, and it starts with me."

I'm not going to voice my guess because I could be wrong, and if I turned out to be right I'd screw up Steve's day if I spoiled the surprise early. Novick will be at PSU 11AM Monday to announce who it is--but he'll also be joined by a local maverick's gallery (which is why I think the big fish is sort of a topper in the same mold) headed by

Portland City Council members Randy Leonard and Erik Sten, Multnomah County Commissioners Jeff Cogan and Maria Rojo De Steffey and Washington County Commissioner Desari Strader. The Novick campaign will also release a list of nearly 100 public officials, civic leaders and political activists from across Oregon who are supporting his campaign.


Good list, eclectic list. Any list with Randy Leonard on it carries a plus mark with a lot of people around Portland, IMO. Glad he's aboard, that he took the plunge.

But why should he have to be seen as plunging at all? The whole notion that complaints about DSCC are reflective of the money advantage is really somewhat of a ruse--Novick will make it to May without the logoed RV and the stage bunting, I think. What's bothersome is the influence, particularly the negative influence exerted--intentionally and not--on the non-favored candidates. It's one thing to compete straight-up for donors on a level playing field, but people in politics know where their bread is buttered, and where their future and career lie--and who they lie with--if they are liberals or progressives: the Democratic Party.

When the machine says to pull lever A and you start handing money to lever B (so to speak), the machine notices, and remembers. How many Democratic House members want to go into 08 session having backed Novick in the primary? Awwwk-ward! The national and state elites have signalled their choice, and that means that going against the choice is a consciously subordinate act to the party leadership. When you are hampered in your free choice by an imbalance of personal-social returns from the institution as a result of who you support, democracy suffers. More simply put, people have to go out on a limb a little bit in many cases, just to support Steve. That shouldn't have to happen.
But it does make those who are courageous enough to follow their convictions good character witnesses for the person they end up backing. So it will be interesting to see who that profile in courage turns out to be.
torridjoe :: Novick Announces "Significant Endorsement" at 11 AM
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Novick Announces "Significant Endorsement" at 11 AM | 39 comments
Kitzhaber? If so that would be big (0.00 / 0)
TJ say it loud and say it proud your predicting Kitzhaber is going to endorse. That would be very significant. Do you think the a Kitzhaber announcement would slingshot Novicks campaign into real legitimacy?

Check out my Oregon politics blog at Forward Oregon
Errr... that should be you're.... pre-coffee writing is a bad a idea n/t (0.00 / 0)


Check out my Oregon politics blog at Forward Oregon
[ Parent ]
not Kitz (0.00 / 0)
I'm not sure Kitz is going to endorse anyone, but that's not my guess anyway.
[ Parent ]
Then who is your guess the post reads kitzhaber (0.00 / 0)


Check out my Oregon politics blog at Forward Oregon
[ Parent ]
where? (0.00 / 0)
Where do I say Kitzhaber? That's not my prediction. I'm thinking someone a little older, politically speaking.
[ Parent ]
Kitz (0.00 / 0)
would be monumental! I think it'd be fair to say that a lot of Republicans would sit up and take interest in such an endorsement. Kitz is on an exceptionally short list of Oregon politicians whose appeal transcended/s party affiliation.
[ Parent ]
bdunn you crack me up (0.00 / 0)
like steve's campaign isn't already legitimate.
It isn't in the way that im talking about (0.00 / 0)
Novick is badly lagging in fundrasing rates and their advantage from being in the race for months longer is evaporated. The don't have many significant endorsements and appear to be losing steam with their DSCC whining. Kitzhaber could reverse all those trends, give them something positive to talk about and be seen as more than a hanger on about to get outspent into oblivion.

Check out my Oregon politics blog at Forward Oregon
[ Parent ]
Or, (0.00 / 0)
Novick could have reported more cash-on-hand third quarter and could have moved within a margin of error of Gordon Smith at last polling. I'd say "legitimacy" was established long ago. Unless you define "legitimacy" as based on national party support and out-of-state endorsements. As someone involved in the Novick campaign as a volunteer, I'd call the campaign "legitimate" in terms of the widespread volunteer sign-ups, strong receptions around the state (even east of the Cascades), and a message that hasn't been taken away from him. And yeah, commenting before coffee is bad news. I don't even lift the lid of my computer before the joe starts brewing.
[ Parent ]
Priorities 101 (0.00 / 0)
LOL - glad to see someone else whose priorities are in order. #1. Make Coffee #2. Take at LEAST a sip of fresh coffee. #3. Everything else. #4. See #4, ad infinitum. ;-)
[ Parent ]
This is Oregon, (0.00 / 0)
after all.
[ Parent ]
bad back-up for Mandate (0.00 / 0)
The way Merkley is spending the DSCC's money, i'm not too worried. What do you get when you buy political advice from Arkansas? An RV from Washington! It's too bad for Merkley that he had to blow later momentum by forcing some of his heavy endorsements early on in the primary. Kitz is big. I voted for the craptastic measure 50 based solely on the good Guv's endorsement. I'd like to see more mainstream press on both candidates (and a debate finally!) before Kitzhaber's name enters the campaign. I am curious about this woman to whom TJ alludes. How about a list of possible endorsers that would tickle your fancy?
[ Parent ]
Its Les AuCoin (4.00 / 1)
The Register Guard's got it Right. Huge endorsement, a congressman from 1992 that hardly anyone has heard about and has no constituency. His significant accomplishments include pushing tank missiles and getting the Oregon trail center. If i was a press person I would be pissed this isn't a big endorsement by any means. This hows how desperate Novick is for attention, drastically overstating his endorsement strengths.

Check out my Oregon politics blog at Forward Oregon
ha (0.00 / 0)
"a congressman from 1992 that hardly anyone has heard about" if you're under 30, maybe. And I was right.
[ Parent ]
ha ha (0.00 / 0)
he couldn't even get appointed to the state forestry board. He has no political capital. What constituency do you think hes bringing with him tj? I have yet to see any evidence that anyone anywhere will care. I mean usually people don't care about people that run for state wide office and get beat and then fall off into oblivion.

Check out my Oregon politics blog at Forward Oregon
[ Parent ]
Whoah. (0.00 / 0)
That is the "big endorsement?" Now, I would think it well within the realm of reasonable campaign communication for the Novick campaign to call this a "big endorsement" upon release of the information (in a press release, etc.). But to shill it ahead of time as "big news" on the horizon was a really silly thing to do. TJ's description evoked two people who do currently enjoy large profiles in Oregon politics: Kitz and Westlund. Now I know he didn't do that on purpose (because he is smart enough to not purposely rig the expectations game against his candidate), but that basically guaranteed that an already underwhelming endorsement would fall completely flat. I don't have the slightest idea if they have any sort of actual data on the matter, but does the Novick campaign really thinks that Les AuCoin can can catalyze a "no, THIS is the guy to back, and it starts with me" sentiment among a remotely significant number of Oregon Democratic primary voters? This would be very surprising. Randy Leonard was actually a much bigger endorsement than AuCoin, even if he is mostly known in PDX. This is embarrassing for the Novick campaign.
[ Parent ]
My original formatting (0.00 / 0)
was a little less Unabomber. I don't know what happened in Soapblox.
[ Parent ]
Ive had the same problem too (0.00 / 0)


Check out my Oregon politics blog at Forward Oregon
[ Parent ]
voters? (0.00 / 0)
"does the Novick campaign really thinks that Les AuCoin can can catalyze a "no, THIS is the guy to back, and it starts with me" sentiment among a remotely significant number of Oregon Democratic primary voters?" Who said voters? Why would a voter be afraid to back someone besides Merkley? That makes no sense. I don't think voters care much about endorsements; a recent Pew survey put the number swayed by politician endorsements at around 1 in 10. I was talking about donors and insiders. They are not typically college kids who would insert their foot and pretend that Oregonians overall aren't familiar with AuCoin. By the way, your post looks fine...?
[ Parent ]
Not a big deal (0.00 / 0)
but it used to have paragraphs.  It didn't eat any text or anything.
[ Parent ]
in manual mode (0.00 / 0)
add a pair of [br /] 's, except use < and > instead of [ and ]. That will give you paragraphs.
[ Parent ]
Gracias (0.00 / 0)
TJ
[ Parent ]
Or (0.00 / 0)
just add a [p] instead of [br/] and do it just once, replacing the brackets with greater than/less than symbols as TJ indicated.

In HTML parlance "br" is short for line break. Everything after it is forced one line down, which is why you have to do it twice to generate a paragraph break. Whereas "p" is short for paragraph and forces everything after it two lines down, so you only have to do it once to accomplish the same task.

A handy way to do it if you're planning on writing a long comment with several paragraphs is to type up the HTML paragraph break tag and copy it into your browser. Then you can just paste it in at the end of each paragraph rather than having to type it up each time.

[ Parent ]
No, don't (0.00 / 0)
using [p] will fuck it up if you also have blockquote or image tags. Trust me--I struggled with it much of the weekend until I figured it out. The code looks (and is) exactly right, but the parser doesn't like the p tags with it. Once I switched to br's, it was fine.  
[ Parent ]
Novick endorsement (0.00 / 0)
"...couldn't get appointed..." Given that the precious appointment process coughs out pederasts and pederast enablers, this is a bad thing how?
Les AuCoin (0.00 / 0)
was actually appointed by Governor Kulongoski to the state forestry board. Unfortunately, a Republican majority existed at that time in the state senate, so he was not approved. Do a little research, Bradley. As for political capital, he was the first Democrat to represent Oregon's first district in the 20th Century when he was voted in during the 1975 election. I'd say that amounts to a bit of political capital, along with the fact that he then kept that seat for 27 years. And as for constituency, he brings a big brand of rural voters in the first district who are working class, active, and often Democrats. His wife and her sister also used to own Tumalo Emporium, out in central Oregon, a mainstay of the region's tourism industry for years. That kind of rural support is integral in a primary that is being seen as two city boys vying to take on good ol' rural Gordon Smith.
[ Parent ]
Silly silly (0.00 / 0)
If you make me do research to figure out what a endorsement's value is, it has no value as someone who says "no, THIS is the guy to back, and it starts with me."

Check out my Oregon politics blog at Forward Oregon
[ Parent ]
But then again, (0.00 / 0)
most Oregonians (at least those a few years older than us, Bradley) don't need to do any research to know the value of this endorsement. I needed a little refresher course, so I did my research. You assumed an intellectual high ground and spit on Congressman AuCoin's political record.
Also, a glance at the rest of the list should give you a hint that this wasn't an event to say "this ONE guy makes all the difference." It was an opportunity to provide a long list of prominent Oregonians from around the state (each with his or her own political clout) who support Steve.
[ Parent ]
That's not what TJ said (0.00 / 0)
He said the endorsement would send a message that "no, THIS is the guy to back, and it starts with me." I think your description is more reasonable, Andrew, but it is not what bdunn was reacting to. He was reacting to the Novick campaign's hyperbole about this one specific endorsement.
[ Parent ]
Well technically, (0.00 / 0)
the Novick campaign's hyperbole amounted to a "significant endorsement," along with a list of about 100 prominent supporters. That was fulfilled, and then some. TJ may have shifted it a bit, but I think that Les AuCoin, to at least a vocal minority of Oregon Democrats, is a great compass in a contested primary.
[ Parent ]
Do a little more research, Andrew (0.00 / 0)
According to the OLCV (Oregon League of Conservation Voters) website, the opposition to AuCoin included rural Democrats as well as some conservationists on the left. All of whom they characterize as having been "bitterly opposed" to the nomination of AuCoin.

Curiously, the anecdotal evidence seems to indicate that more urban conservationists backed AuCoin while more rural (ya know, where the trees are at...) conservationists bitterly opposed his nomination to the Board of Forestry. Both groups seemed to remember his years voting with Republicans in Congress to enable clearcutting ancient forests as well as his years as a Timber Industry lobbyist after losing his bid to unseat Packwood.

One wonders how Novick squares his newest endorsee's history of voting with Republicans and lobbying for corporate special interests (who give big $$$ to Republicans) with his criticism of Senator Schumer et al. The seemingly apparent disconnect there does appear to fit with the description of Novick as a consumate political insider...

[ Parent ]
what criticism? (0.00 / 0)
Where did Novick criticize Schumer? And in what way would Novick be conceivably beholden to AuCoin should he win, in a manner that would suggest payback? What power does Les have over him?
[ Parent ]
Kevin, (0.00 / 0)
I don't pretend to have all the facts on AuCoin. I was five years old in 1992.

But I have to agree with TJ: AuCoin's endorsement of Novick doesn't mean Steve will extend a twenty-year-old congressional agenda. It means a prominent Oregon legislator thinks Steve is the guy for the Senate.

The U.S. Senate is a trusteeship. We should be electing leaders who we know will fight for the future of our country and our values. The House, a much more direct representation, is for elected officials who will be "beholden" to their supporters. Steve's seat in the Senate will not mean he will advance AuCoin's agenda any more than he'll advance mine. He will, however, bring a fresh style, a strong will, and pragmatic ideas to the Senate, which is why I support him. It's not on this issue or that, it's because I trust Steve to fight for a true progressive populist agenda in Washington.
[ Parent ]
I see (0.00 / 0)
that you too have figured out how to manipulate SoapBlox's new comment format. Nice work.

I wonder how long it'll take the others...

As for AuCoin/Schumer et al, I fail to see a meaningful distinction except that viewed through partisan lenses. Which underscores the demagogic folly of partisans trying to impute past choices of supporters onto current candidates. It's a sword that cuts both ways, either way.

In any case, the reasons for AuCoin's nomination to the Board of Forestry are demonstrably more complex than you'd let on. That was really my primary point.

[ Parent ]
Redux (0.00 / 0)
That last paragraph should read:

In any case, the reasons for AuCoin's nomination to the Board of Forestry being shot down are demonstrably more complex than you'd let on. That was really my primary point.

[ Parent ]
comments? (0.00 / 0)
"that you too have figured out how to manipulate SoapBlox's new comment format. Nice work." ?
[ Parent ]
Syntax, TJ (0.00 / 0)
Ya know... stuff like

paragraph breaks.

[ Parent ]
you have to add them yourself (0.00 / 0)
if you're not using wysywig. [br /][br /] (with < as the tag marker instead of [) does the job.
[ Parent ]
Right (0.00 / 0)
Although I find [p] more efficient than [br]. I'm guessing that the entire range of basic HTML tags ought to work. Kinda like the old days when most message boards required HTML to manipulate the text and everyone had to learn at least the basics in order to be understood.

Just for giggles it would be interesting to know if SHTML is supported too, and if so, to what extent.

[ Parent ]
Novick Announces "Significant Endorsement" at 11 AM | 39 comments

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