It's always interesting to see what the DC press are saying about the Oregon Senate race; they are watching from afar but are certainly interested in parsing the dynamics--both at the primary level and the general. Steve Novick has definitely been noticed more by the Beltway Boys lately, and this piece by David Drucker (sub only, sorry) goes the farthest in pushing both his figurative poke in the eye to the Schumer Machine, and in estimating Novick's actual chances of winning. Whereas previous items continued to give presumption to Merkley's establishment advantages (and they are still mentioned as weighty factors in this piece, as they are), the very real possibility of a Novick upset is beginning to enter the frame:
In seeking to upset state Speaker Jeff Merkley in the Oregon Democratic Senate primary next month, attorney Steve Novick is fighting against a Capitol Hill powerbroker with a proven record of shepherding his preferred candidate to victory: Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee Chairman Charles Schumer (N.Y.).
In 2006, Schumer muscled now-Sens. Bob Casey (Pa.) and Jim Webb (Va.) to Democratic primary wins despite some resistance at the state party level. But Novick could be on track to upend Merkley, whom Schumer recruited to run against Sen. Gordon Smith (R) and whom he has continued to assist with infrastructure and strategic advice throughout the primary campaign.
"I think it's a tossup," said Lisa Grove, a Portland-based Democratic pollster. "Understanding that Merkley is going to have more money, my sense is that he is going to have more -- but not a lot more. This is just a funny place, and it's going to be a funny primary." [emph mine]
Just getting to "tossup" stage against a Schumer designee is impressive (although the article seems to have forgotten such DSCC-backed losers from 2006 as Richard Morrison in MT and Harold Ford in TN). To also say he "could be on track to upend Merkley" seems a nod at the polling and momentum established by Novick in recent weeks. Adding in the suddenly much closer earning power of the two main candidates, the mood on the race has certainly shifted in the halls of the DC echo chamber.
Novick, who previously worked as a political consultant for Gov. Ted Kulongoski (D) and several issue-advocacy campaigns, has been a feisty campaigner who has played up his short height -- he is 4-foot-9 -- and the fact that he has a hook in place of the left hand that he was born without. He has aggressively campaigned for an immediate end to the Iraq War, nationalizing health care and raising capital gains taxes.
Merkley has run as the slightly more reserved establishment candidate that he is. His campaign notes that Merkley worked as a Democratic leader with a one-vote majority in the state House of Representatives to pass "progressive" legislation that required the support of Republican members. The Speaker's team argues that Novick is all talk, while Merkley has a record of turning Democratic policies into law.
Merkley's supporters, with Sen. Ron Wyden (D) and in some ways Smith as their models, believe that Oregonians tend to elect statewide politicians who exhibit a calm demeanor and govern in an independent, bipartisan fashion. Those are some of the reasons they support Merkley.
However, Novick's campaign believes voters are fed up with Washington, D.C., and are looking for someone who speaks his mind and stands up for principle, even if a few feathers are ruffled in the process. Novick's team says its view of the race is backed up by the fact that Sen. Barack Obama (Ill.), perceived as the "change" candidate in the Democratic White House primary, is favored at this point to win Oregon's May 20 presidential primary.
A Republican insider based in Oregon partially agreed with that assessment, saying that Smith could be in trouble this fall, even though he has done a good job of creating separation between himself and unpopular GOP policies.
"The electorate out here is very change-oriented," Novick campaign spokesman Jake Weigler said. Merkley "received a majority of endorsements early in the race to create the aura of inevitability. But the reality is -- despite all of the endorsements -- Steve's been moving ahead while Merkley's been stalled."
Despite it coming from one of the principals with an obvious vested interest, Weigler is accurate on the evolution and current status of the race. What's to come? No one can say--but no longer will the talking heads of Washington be surprised if Novick becomes the nominee. And that by itself is news.
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