To let the words catch up to the picture, those are ballot returns statewide as of last night, sorted by percent of eligible ballots returned by each party. The "other" category includes both minor parties and the non-affiliated, with the latter coming in at 30%, right near the middle between the Independent and Green Parties, and the Peace and (shamefully) Working Families Parties. So I think it's OK to lump them. I should stress that these are the percent of all ballots from just that party, that have been returned. This is not percent of ALL ballots returned, which is a different stat, useful but different. The goal for each party is obviously 100% returned, so the percent already returned is both a sign of how many potential votes are left, and the enthusiasm of those already voted. So perhaps you can say with optimism that 59% of registered Oregon Republicans have yet to cast a ballot, so there are plenty left to get. But at 41%, Republicans lag by a wide 8-point margin to the Democrats at 49%. This, even if by the end of the balloting period the advantage was cut in half, would be nearly unprecedented domination of the election by Oregon Democrats. Here's the historical chart. The Democrats got as close as they've been in a loooong time in 2004, within a single point. And they turned out in modern record numbers, almost 89%. Too bad the Republicans turned out at almost 90%. But before that, the GOP advantage has been a very steady 2-4 points, sometimes as much as 5 but no lower than 2, all the way back to the late 70s--before which the GOP routinely racked up 6, 8, even 10 point bulges in turnout gaps. So the modern political (post '60) history of Oregon is one where Republicans have always had the turnout advantage. I cannot say unfortunately what the previous historical comparisons were by party; I'm going to ask the Elections Division for that tomorrow, if they have it. (If they don't I won't pry). Maybe the GOP is a notorious late-breaking ballot return group; the "72 hour strategy" used by the Rove machine in the last two elections would support that theory. But even if that's the case, they're running way behind at the moment amd I'm unsure as to what would trigger a tsunami of Republican ballots. What's interesting is a look at the by-county results, which you can follow along with by looking at this pdf. The most amazing thing to me is something that one might not have guessed without seeing it: the Democrats are indeed ahead in turning out their people, as the statewide numbers indicate. But they're not doing it in the big urban counties. (Well, they're doing it to some extent in Lane, home of Eugene and UofO, at 52% Dem returns). Multnomah is right near the average at 48%, but gets full credit because they have easily the most Democrats and thus have the hardest time keeping the average up (of course they also shape the statewide average the most with their own percentage). Clackamas is right on at 49%, and Washington is actually dawdling at 45% for Dems. Now look at some of the redder counties: - CURRY 58%
- DESCHUTES 51%
- DOUGLAS 51%
- GILLIAM 45%
- GRANT 53%
- HARNEY 56%
- HOOD RIVER 53%
- JACKSON 52%
- JEFFERSON 55%
- JOSEPHINE 50%
- KLAMATH 49%
- LAKE 52%
- LANE 52%
That's approximately 230,000 registered Democratic voters in those counties, over one fourth of all Democratic voters in the state--so their numbers definitely matter statewide, and of course if Dems maintain anything like double digit gaps in turnout enthusiasm, a lot of legislative and local races are going to flip surprisingly. (This assumes a straight ticket vote by both sides and equal 100% loyalty to their candiates; certainly not all voters would do so, but the difference between parties would be negligible so it's a reasonable standard to apply to all groups). Maybe the numbers are distorted in some way. It's tempting to look at the 50+ turnout rates in some of those counties and treat them equally to Multnomah's number, but a few of the above counties are very small, 1000 Dems or fewer even. But Lane, Josephine, Jackson, Douglas and Deschutes all have sizeable enough numbers to make the percentages more trustworthy. And even if the total number of votes may be low in cases, if you compare by party those same reddish counties, you see that Dems are still outpacing Republicans, no matter whether there are a thousand, ten thousand or 50 thousand Democrats doing it. Realistically there are only another million or so ballots left, and the Republicans have to play catchup in every single county. Grasp that for a second: the party that has led turnout in every election since most of us were able to vote or even simply alive, is running behind in EVERY county in the state at the halfway pole. And that's not the worst part. Remember how I said that the big counties were lagging behind the state average for Dem turnout? They're also lagging for Republicans, and by even worse margins, such that the gap is widest exactly where the most votes are for Dems to pick up (and the most for Republicans to sorely miss getting). Multnomah's D-R gap is a solid +7.97 (48-40), while Washington--even with their 45% turnout--is at +9.1 and Clackamas a very high +9.37% Dem advantage. Democrat-rich Benton leads all counties at +12 enthusiasm advantage. So Democrats are getting the most they can hope for in the rural areas, and in the urban areas they could improve but the Republicans are slumping worst where they need the numbers most. On a legislative level this may have little effect for many seats; more Dem voters in NE Portland isn't going to make Jeff Smith any more the Rep-elect than he is now. But for statewide offices including President and US Senate, the victory margins could be larger, and especially in smaller areas the higher Dem turnout could flip some races no one expects to be flipped. I was promised another version of this today, and one Monday. The Monday one should be crucial--if it follows this trend the GOP is sunk in this state; if it's better for them then who knows how things may end up in a lot of races. Stay tuned. |
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