| I guess I lied when I said the simplest dualism were venue and opponent--let's be officious and note that the Blazers fell to the Atlanta Hawks in the Philips TVDome 98-80, in a game that was pretty close by score most of the time, but felt like the final margin a lot of the way. Tonight they did about the same to the Memphis Grizzlies, 103-92--a game that was about that margin's pace most of the time, but felt much closer a lot of the way. See, already it's Lincoln-Kennedy spooky! Seriously though, the back and forth performing nature of the current Blazers is giving fans ulcers while they cheer. (I almost titled this column "Jason Quick to Judge," because I thought The O's main Blazers writer was knee-jerk down on the team this morning after the Atlanta loss. Hey man--you said yourself the Hawks had beaten solid West and East teams at home the last 2 weeks, held them to the 80s offensively, and Joe Johnson had dropped at least 30. So the Blazers are victim 6. Why was it a special failure?) Who are they? Worldbeaters against the Spurs and Lakers? Just-do-enoughers against the league punks? Scrambling losers against quality on the road? Of course the answer is they're all three at various times, but by this point there are some sentinel measures that make the call a little easier. Let's try some. One of the most talked about indicators by the Mikes on the Comcast broadcast is who gets the lead out of the first. The Blazers are 18-2 at home with a lead after one, and conversely have a strong tendency to struggle in the first on the road--and the difference in whether the team will weather it is usually the quality of the opponent. Against the Hawks the Blazers started out strong, spreading out the offense (LMA 6, Blake 6, Joel 2, Travis 2, Roy 2) and penetrating the defense. That got them a 16-15 lead after seven minutes, and things looked fine. Then the bottom fell out. Travis hit that 16-15 jumper with 5:01 left, and then hit another with 36 seconds left in the first. That was it for Portland. Luckily Atlanta wasn't really woken up for the 1pm EDT start either, and the Blazers were within three. But they were behind. The momentum shifted when Brandon Roy came back from his shift break, and so did Joel. Roy went on one of his runs, scoring a whopping 16 in the quarter, just driving over and over again. Yet, this seemed bad, as the half ended with the same margin, Hawks +3. This was 4th quarter Brandon, not...2nd quarter Brandon! What's going on here? What was going on was that no one could hit a lick except for Roy and a little bit of Outlaw and Blake...just a little. When LaMarcus had the spigot shut off for him, the Blazers were dead in the water and Roy knew it, so he expended the energy then to keep the team in the game. The broadcasters seemed excited about the defensive energy to close out the half, but it disappeared under a hail of Joe Johnson jumpers and Josh Smith slams. The beatdown continued in the fourth, and when Blake finally broke the non-Roy silence with a three to close at 64-72, I thought maybe. But Bibby answered right back with a trey of his own ant that was that. Johnson was unstopped for two more easier, and per the liveblog with 8:19 left I started praying for the starters to get their rest for Memphis the following night. So what happened? Bad first quarter, horrible second unit forcing Roy to carry the team early just to keep them in it, lack of energy just drags them down. No three point shooting success at all, Rudy is O-fer, Blake can't hit key ones (1-6 from distance), Outlaw's a little off. A terrible assist ratio for Portland, 11 on 32 makes. Atlanta's worse, but they have multiple dangerous iso options, so it doesn't hurt them--and to a certain extent the Blazers had fewer because of Roy's many isos. Everything was different in Memphis the following evening. The Blazers started out hot, and at first it was the same deal--LMA getting off to a good start right away...and then you held your breath waiting to see if the shots went cold and Memphis would struggle back into parity or even--hush!--take the lead into the 2nd quarter. You could tell the difference quickly. Blake, Batum and Przybilla all had shots around LaMarcus' twin wing jumpers--and then Aldridge just took over for a few minutes. It all fell, including a corner three that felt like Pooh dipping two fists into the honey tree, bees be damned! LMA had 15 points in the first nine minutes, and it looked like an early blowout, 27-13. Then--uh oh--the second unit started to come in and the nerves returned. Would Roy have to bail them out early again? Memphis crept closer, 27-20, until Channing finally put away a bucket on three shots and tips between he and Joel to put the margin back at nine. Whew! the quarter ended 29-20. There were only two threes that quarter, but then it started to rain. Brandon! Brandon again! Blake! Batum! Outlaw! Outlaw! Blake! Unlike the Hawks game, the perimeter shooters--Roy and otherwise--were able to make their shots. Why? The defense wasn't as good. Man, on many occasions the defense ranged from horrible to simply absent. The Hawks got after shooters. The Grizz? Not...so much. And then there were the studs. Joe Johnson and Josh Smith? Check. They came to play, they put forth the effort and did the work, and took control when necessary. Brandon and LMA were dominant offensively for the Blazers, but it doesn't work the same way for them. When they go off for almost 50 and they don't score 100, that's usually a bad sign. It means the game is leaning on them, and that's not how the Blazers want to have the game played. Whereas in the Hawks game the Blazers kept coming within shouting distance but never really felt in it and always fell back, the roles reversed in Memphis. Even though the lead kept shrinking and then regrowing like Costanza in and out of the pool, it never seemed like Memphis would actually take over the game (although the weird pattern of officiating threatened to at times). In this game, Brandon and LMA had 42 of the Blazers 103, which is much more in line with a good team win. Outlaw approached his 20 with 18, which is another sign (in the Hawks game he earned just 10). Rudy was still off (he finally gave up on threes and drove the lane a couple times instead), but Blake was a key difference, going 3-6 from downtown and 5-9 overall, plus six assists. (Roy had nine!, and the team was a much better assisting team, 24-38 overall). Oh, and the Blazers scored 100, which has led to a 34-3 record if I recall the Mikes correctly this evening. Against the Hawks, 80? Non. The Blazers only have two wins with fewer than 90 points this season. Energy? Had it tonight, not yesterday morning. Opposing studs had big games? Check for Atlanta, Mayo and Gay got a little fatter when the game was over in the fourth, but Mayo did pretty well (Gay was 7-21). So! We can now conclusively state that if the Blazers play at home, win the first, have someone other than LaMarcus shoot well in the first, have the 2nd unit play well, somebody other than Roy can hit jumpers, the threes are falling, the assists are up, Roy is not having to carry the team in the first half, the team scores 100, and the opponent is either from the East or not very good regardless, chalk it up for Rip City! If, however, it's an away game against a West contender, they're held under 90, their studs do most of the scoring and so do their opponents', the threes aren't falling, they go cold in the first and end up losing the quarter, Roy has to carry the team early, nobody else can hit the perimeter shots, they're doing too many isos and Roy and LMA are doing too much of the scoring, or it's a good Eastern team, maybe you should take an antacid. Eureka! I've done it! Next game Indy, we'll see if the pattern holds. |
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