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Hot off the phone lines! The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Oregon voters found Republican Incumbent Senator Gordon Smith with leads over his Democratic challengers. Smith leads Jeff Merkley 48% to 30% and Steve Novick 48% to 35% in head-to-head match-ups. While the Senator may find some comfort in a double-digit margin, any incumbent who polls below 50% is considered potentially vulnerable.
Smith has a distinct advantage among unaffiliated voters in the Beaver State. The incumbent enjoys a seventeen-point lead over Merkley among voters not affiliated with either party and a nine-point lead over Novick. As the incumbent, Smith is far better known than either of his challengers. Over half of voters (57%) view Smith favorably while 38% give him an unfavorable rating. Merkley is viewed favorably by 33% and unfavorably by 30%, while another 38% are not sure. Thirty-six percent (36%) give Novick a favorable rating, 26% give him an unfavorable rating, and 37% are not sure. When it comes to the upcoming election, the economy is the most important issue for 28% of Oregon voters, with the War in Iraq coming in close behind at 24%. Fourteen percent (14%) of Oregon voters think immigration is the highest priority. Analysis below--or provide your own in comments... |
| Updated 130AM-- I would refer to this as a confirming poll, showing a relatively stable race in a number of different ways: - Gordon Smith is still ahead, still ahead outside the margin of either major Democrat
- However, he continues to pull less than a majority in committed voters.
- Smith polls almost exactly the same against either Democrat, suggesting at least to some extent a "generic Democrat" effect due to low name recognition of the challengers.
- Numerically speaking, Steve Novick unanimously polls better than Jeff Merkley vs Smith, although not significantly so in any one poll.
- Novick also receives slightly more favorable ratings than Merkley, to the extent there is any difference notable
That's actually a lot to know about the race at this point. Smith is beatable, but he continues to carry the presumption of adequacy with a large segment of the electorate, regardless of party. And for everything so far--endorsements, money, ads--Novick and Merkley are in a wide open race that is well within the grasp of either man. And I can't say for sure, but if you asked Isaacs and Co. if they expected Steve Novick to be running even with--or slightly ahead of--them in late February, they'd have probably said no. At the very least, it was surely not how they imagined it going. In fact, I'd have bet they imagined the name Steve Novick to be long off the lips of the local media, much less the national pundits. Because c'mon--as the legislative head of his party with a supposedly strong legislative session under his belt and the backing of the state and federal party elites, you would ordinarily think he'd be well known and well regarded, well welcomed for the nomination. Except the Leg isn't very popular, the candidate isn't exactly George Clooney after a bottle of Korbel--and the last kind of political experience Oregonians are looking for in this election, IF they plan to replace Gordon Smith, is the feeling you get when you put in your money and pull the handle for D8 on the Candidate Vending Machine, instead of R1. It was cute for a couple of months, but every week that goes by, every poll that comes out showing him just a hook's-breadth ahead, makes Merkley's attempt at an early Shock and Awe knockout look ever more...Clintonian. |
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