I get the feeling he thinks he's capitalizing on a tea party zeitgeist of which he would be a natural leader, and he must seize the moment personal circumstances be damned--but this is really not a good way to announce your candidacy for governor:
Sizemore filed Monday to seek the Republican nomination for governor, to the surprise of GOP political insiders. Sizemore didn't return a call for comment, but he did release a statement to NW Republican saying he was willing to challenge a court order enjoining him from raising or spending money in politics. [emph mine]
"And I promise I will fight this scurrilous double murder charge, AND keep an honest and positive outlook on my race for all Oregonians." You have to go back to Olmert in Israel, with the "If I am indicted, I will resign" line--but hell, Sizemore's gone waaaay beyond simply being indicted. In any case, the line is surely an announcement and epitaph in one, for half the production cost. Carry on.
Senator Atkinson will primarily focus on the health and well-being of his family in the coming weeks and will make an announcement when the time is appropriate.
"Stephanie and I have recently been confronted with some serious health concerns that need to be addressed before I undertake such a massive task as running for Governor of our great state. We ask for your thoughts and prayers as well as your patience as we wade through this difficult time. I am not going away, but need time with my family. We greatly appreciate your strong support and kind words."
As Mapes notes, Atkinson and his family have been cursed with health issues of late, from his accidental shooting to his wife's apparently returning cancer. We certainly wish Jason and his wife good health and full recovery, and it's refreshing to see a politician quit something "to spend more time with their family"---and actually have it be true.
Atkinson leaves the door ajar for a return, but we have to consider the timing here. It's late October, and Atkinson cites "coming weeks" as a rough timeline. That takes us into the holiday season, obviously both a bad time for campaigning and to be away from the family you're trying to save.
So the earliest we might expect Atkinson to return to the Republican primary would be early 2010, which in a number of states would still be enough time to get ramped up before the election--but in Oregon we hold them in May, and people can start filling out ballots in late April. Maybe an incumbent with an existing war chest could pull off something like that, but a generally unknown state legislator who has built almost none of the required campaign apparatus?
Put it this way: Steve Novick started out better known and with a more memorable persona than Atkinson could ever manage, started his race for Senate a full year before the primary--and still struggled to gain recognition by a large majority of the state by May 2008. Maybe if he were a howler/crier like Glenn Beck he could earn the requisite attention (bad or good), but he's more like a Republican version of Ron Wyden--personable, smooth, generally low key.
So let's hypothesize that this is it for Jason in 2010. Who's that leave? Right now, Allen Alley and John Lim. As it stands, the Dem primary is looking like Yankees-Angels...with the Pittsburgh Republican Pirates waiting to face the winner in November. (And if you don't know your baseball, the Halos and Yanks are two of the top four teams in the game, while the Pirates have been cellar dwellers since the late 70s). Not to get too far ahead of ourselves, but I'd take the Democrats and the points on this one.
It was a good first week of the campaign for goobernatorial retread John Kitzhaber, who according to Willy Week pulled in over $75,000 for his run, some from the likes of young liberal turks such as Jefferson Smith and newly-unlistening challenger-cum-acolyte Brian Clem, and boosted his Facebook friend total to 7,000. The reaction to Kitz's re-entry into state electoral politics seems to have been mostly positive, although while chasing Clem he still might face other primary challenges from Clackamas County Commissioner Lynn Peterson and as-yet-undecided Congressman Peter DeFazio.
The typical desire within party politics is that one inordinately strong candidate quickly and thoroughly chases away the pretenders, so that the party is not left with a messy, costly, brand-dampening primary season. At the federal level this phenomenon can lead to the national party attempting to override the apparent wishes of the folks in-state (cough--MERKLEY--cough!), but of course that doesn't apply for a governor's race. Still, being a columnist and not a party hack, the Statesman-Journal's Ron Eachus would like to see Kitz get a little competition--particularly from nearly-announced former Secretary of State Bill Bradley:
So far Kitzhaber has scared other candidates out of the race, but he hasn't had to explain just what fundamental changes he is talking about. What new and different policies for school funding, higher education, transportation or the tax structure that represents isn't clear. His statements so far have been of the generic political campaign type such as "Oregonians are ready to embrace a different kind of politics."
After eight years in office, he ended his term with a frustrating declaration that Oregon was "ungovernable." Now he says "I can do better than before." This attitude is a welcome air of humility from someone not especially known for that characteristic, but it doesn't exactly make a compelling case why he should get a second shot at his favorite job.
What the voters need, and what Kitzhaber could actually use to his advantage, is someone with credibility to challenge him. Make him explain why he deserves another chance and why he is better than another Democrat. Make him explain what he would do differently than someone else who has qualifications for the job.
The most obvious possibility is former Secretary of State Bill Bradbury, who is apparently still contemplating entering the race...it might be awkward for Bradbury to run against Kitzhaber, given their long-standing friendship. They served in the Oregon Senate together, Bradbury acting as majority leader to Senate President Kitzhaber. Bradbury succeeded Kitzhaber as Senate President. And it was Gov. Kitzhaber who initially appointed Bradbury to the Secretary of State position in 1999.
But if friendship was a determining factor, then Kitzhaber would have been the one to step aside so Bradbury could have his turn at a shot at governor.
Ouch, that's a bit of a jab in that last line, isn't it? I'm a pretty big fan of Kitzhaber's, although I was only back in Oregon for the quiet tail-end of his second term on the first go-round. Yet I have to agree with Eachus here, at least in principle, because like Eachus I'm not entirely sure what voters should look forward to from a third Kitz term. Does he have a greater vision than last time, or does he just think it will be easier to implement? Is he committed, or just a little bored? What, specifically, is he interested in tackling during another term in office? A challenger--perhaps even most appropriately a friendly one--could go a long way towards forcing those answers from Kitzhaber, not allowing him to sail into the general election thinking that all memories are fond, and that his name will be enough to carry him back to Mahonia Hall. No one wants rancor and the smear-fest primaries can bring, but I'm counting on both Kitz and Bradbury to be above that kind of thing. I say bring it on!
The announcement was official today, although is was a badly kept secret the final 24 hours: former goobernor John Kitzhaber will indeed run for a third (non-consecutive) term as Beav-Guv.
And just as quickly, the "listening tour" of potential Dem hopeful Brian Clem has gone on pause:
State Representative Brian Clem of Salem will announce his decision on whether he will run for Governor of Oregon this Thursday, September 3, in Portland. Rep. Clem has been conducting a statewide listening tour as he explores running for Governor, visiting communities across the state, sharing his vision for Oregon's future and hearing from everyday Oregonians how they feel we can best move our state forward.
He'll be dropping word (almost literally) from the third floor terrace of the Ecotrust Building in NW PDX, tomorrow at 10 AM if you like your race withdrawal announcements live and in living color. Is it 100% positive that Clem--who had already dropped some broad hints he wouldn't run if Kitz did--will be retrieving his hat from halfway inside the ring, where it's been while he crisscrossed the state listening? Of course not, but I'll buy you a Voodoo Donut if he stays in the race. I think you'll see the field clear with the exception of Bill Bradbury--who, by the way, also made some news by hiring Jeremy Wright as his campaign manager, albeit before actually formally announcing his run. Timing, schmiming! And finally, if you're starving for benchmark data on which to base the race the rest of the way, Survey USA did a run of favorability tests on various potential candidates, and just released them (h/t Blue O). Count me among those in the camp who find the results interesting, but not terribly instructive yet this far out--except that Alley and Bradbury need to learn how to open a bottle with their fingernails, or something, so they can acquaint themselves with the electorate.
After months of speculation and predictions, it appears, according to multiple sources, that former Governor John Kitzhaber (D), creator of the Oregon Health Plan, will run for a third-term as Oregon governor in 2010 (The Constitution bars anyone from running for more than two CONSECUTIVE terms, legendary governor Tom McCall (R) tried to run for a third-term in a similar fashion but lost the 1978 Republican primary to future Governor Vic Atiyeh (the last Republican to hold the office).
Needless to say, this announcement has fundamentally changed the race for Oregon governor and instantly upped the ante. My analysis is below.
You knew once he got 18% in the race for State Labor Commissioner {pdf}, nobody was going to be able to keep immigrant bodybuilder, motivational speaker and erstwhile politician Pavel Goberman away from future elections. Well, who are we kidding--not even a single vote for Pavel in that race was probably necessary to spur him on to new challenges; the G in Goberman also stands for "gadfly."
Pavel seems to have his heart in the right place, but he's what I'd call a "novelty candidate:" someone who has little to no chance of ever prevailing in a race, but who is so damned entertaining and amusingly different that he or she is often worth the attention anyway. Some of the intellectualism of what he has said in past races (or in voluminous comments to places like Blue Oregon) probably gets lost in the muddle of poor syntax typical of newcomers to America, but I think the crazy would shine through most of it, even were it written in the King's English. Where else can you get a pledge to make I-5 obsolete, and a plan to "make Oregon famous" by inventing fire resistant wood?
And it is with this introduction that I give you the official announcement of Pavel Goberman's primary challenge to Ron Wyden for Oregon's US Senate seat in 2010. I'm presuming a primary challenge, anyway, based on Pavel's self-identification as "(D, but honest)." Below the fold, I am thrilled to reproduce his statement as presented. Ron, you betta recognize! Pavel's coming to pump (clap, clap) YOU out of office! How? As you'll come to see, Pavel's a "problems slover, " and "that dummy" Wyden is the problem. Does Senator Ron have any shields in his political armory to defend against that?? Doubtful...
Not one but two brief items on our good friend Steve Novick today, both from PolitickerOR. First, Steve was captured offering his former primary rival Jeff Merkley some advice: just be yourself, buddy:
"I've told Jeff that everyone should take advantage of their natural strength," Novick said. "And Jeff is a hard-working, honest, geek."
Novick said that geekiness was actually a strength for Merkley, and after eight years of the Bush administration he estimated that Oregon's voters were looking for someone with a little more policy background and a little less polished.
"With the start of school, it's a great time to do a commercial showing Gordon Smith finally coming around on global warming, or the Iraq war," Novick said. "Then you show Jeff on the screen looking really geeky, and say something like, ‘But Jeff Merkley is a guy that's done his homework.'"
The article goes on to note that Novick is looking for a new job this summer--based on the above idea, and Merkley's ads so far, how about media consultant to the nominee?
Former Democratic Senate candidate Steve Novick, who has been mentioned on Oregon political insiders’ short list as a possible gubernatorial candidate in 2010, did not rule out a run Thursday when he was asked about the possibility.
“It has occurred to me that if I am going to spend the rest of my life fighting Bill Sizemore, I might as well do it from a position of power,” Novick said as he left the Oregon Democratic delegation breakfast [at DNC Denver].
I would certainly be thrilled with Governor Novick, although truthfully I think he's the least well suited for that job compared to House or Senate. Mahonia Hall seems like a waste of his prodigious talents, IMO. He could amply articulate a broad vision from the Executive's office, but his passion and his proficiency are most clearly on display when Novick is embracing HIS inner geek, constructing policy at the nut/bolt level. That's legislative stuff. Being a governor is too many dinners, too many task forces, too many junkets. To paraphrase the naive news photographer in Full Metal Jacket, Steve needs to be "in the shit."
I'm still holding out hope for Earl Blumenauer as Transportation Secretary in Obama's cabinet, which would make Steve a Stone Cold Lock for OR-3. But gov is nice, too. Stay (loosely) tuned...
Central Point police were called to Atkinson's home in the 500 block of Blue Heron Street at 8:13 p.m. Tuesday to investigate a report of an accidental gunshot wound, police said today.
Officers found Atkinson in his garage with a gunshot wound to his right knee. They learned that Atkinson was working on a friend's bicycle and had to remove a small bag attached to the bike. He dropped the bag and a .38-caliber derringer inside the bag fired. The bullet hit his knee.
I certainly would never, ever want Atkinson to be Oregon's governor, as all indications suggest he will run in 2010. But he's been a dedicated servant to his constituents and has a repuation for personability. Even if that weren't true of course, we'd still be concerned for his health, and so best wishes to Sen. Atkinson and his family. Hopefully the damage will not be permanent or yield unfortunate circumstances.
As an aside, assuming the story Atkinson tells holds up, what a coincidental commentary on issues of "bike rage," a story that's gotten as far as Newsweek recently, and focuses on Portland. Not sure what issues they're having in Central Point, but you may want to think twice if you're going to engage a cyclist in Southern Oregon!
So there's the Senate race here in Oregon, and the 5th District tussle that Democrats are nonetheless in good position to win...and that's it for major elections this year. The next big office up for grabs is Goobernor in 2010, and names bubble up on both sides--Steve Novick, for instance, on the Democratic team. I don't think the Executive is the best use of his prodiguous talents, and it's another tough office to jumpstart into, but he's built some very positive credits within the party and would draw some support in a relative vacuum of other dominant prospects (Kate Brown just a year or so into an SoS gig? Ben Westlund, ditto Treasurer? A theoretically defeated Jeff Merkley? Susan Castillo? Vicki Walker?)
On the Republican side, from an outsider's view the favored son of the GOP grassroots (such as it is) is state Senator Jason Atkinson, perhaps most notably a sartorial example under the dome, but also one with a fair bit of foreign policy/trade experience--rare for someone in the state Legislature. If you're a fan of his relatively orthodox conservtive "New Republican*" policy stances, combined with that diplomatic experience and positions of authority/dues paying in the Leg at a relatively young age, and you can imagine why state Republicans--seeking a standardbearer to steer them past the political graves of Wayne Scott, Karen Minnis, Ron Saxton and Kevin Mannix--are eager to see what kind of statewide appeal Atkinson might have.
{where that hope dives off the rails for many of us, below}
*New Republican is to Republicanism as New Country is to Country Music. Think Hatfield and Johnny Cash vs George Bush and Shania Twain.
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On the Republican side, from an outsider's view the favored son of the GOP grassroots (such as it is) is state Senator Jason Atkinson, perhaps most notably a sartorial example under the dome, but also one with a fair bit of foreign policy/trade experience--rare for someone in the state Legislature. If you're a fan of his relatively orthodox conservtive "New Republican*" policy stances, combined with that diplomatic experience and positions of authority/dues paying in the Leg at a relatively young age, and you can imagine why state Republicans--seeking a standardbearer to steer them past the political graves of Wayne Scott, Karen Minnis, Ron Saxton and Kevin Mannix--are eager to see what kind of statewide appeal Atkinson might have.