Janice Thompson at Democracy Reform Oregon reminded me that there's an excellent, longer-term report on this kind of stuff that they published earlier this year. The more the better!
The report found the average Oregon legislative race raised $124,000 in 2008, a 51 percent increase from 2004. But even as the total amount increased, the actual competitiveness of the races decreased: Incumbents running for re-election were likely to hold on to their seats and fundraising was often lopsided.
Legislative candidates weren’t the only ones raising money in 2008. Ballot measure committees also raised significant amounts. Unions, which gave one of every three dollars in the state overall, contributed the most to ballot measure committees.
While the amount of money contributed to elections raised dramatically in 2008, the number of people giving did not. Only 0.1 percent of Oregon’s population gave money to a candidate, party, or ballot measure during the election cycle.
The cite I'm using (the excellent CAUSA blog) notes that, as with similar ordinances in places like Hazelton, PA, the wishes of the area's residents ran afoul of well-established law regarding who and what are possible when it comes to controlling immigration. Short answer: the federal government, not county sheriffs. In addition, things that the ordinance had directed officials to do, like revoking all business licenses the violator held, failed to take into account the simple fact that the county isn't necessarily the one who issues the license.
Citing the Federal Immigration Reform and Control Act of 1983 was pretty much all it took, since a key part of that act says "The provisions of this section preempt any state or local law imposing civil or criminal sanctions (other than through licensing or similar laws) upon those who employ or recruit or refer for a fee employment, unauthorized aliens." Grove went on to note these slight problems with the initiative:
The measure's $10,000 mandatory fine "clearly violates" the preemption of immigration enforcement by federal law;
The measure's provision that violations would be reviewed according to state law but would be appealed to Justice Court, violated state law that requires that such appeals be heard by the Oregon Court of Appeals;
The measure's requirement that violations result in suspension of all licenses and permits were beyond the authority of both the Justice Court and the County Commissioners because many of the relevant licenses and permits are not issued by the county; and
The many enforcement provisions of the measure rose to the level of criminal or civil sanctions which are also preempted by federal law.
The measure passed relatively strongly at 57%, but the state ACLU, Northwest Workers' Justice Project and a coalition of county businesses quickly worked to formally object, and yesterday was their payoff. Victory for rule of law, and hopefully a signal to other localities in the state to leave immigration enforcement to the feds--and maybe it's time to quit hating and scapegoating on Latinos now?
Cause let's be real--anti-immigrant sentiment is not typically addressed at the roughly half of undocument aliens NOT from Mexico, and the roughly half who did NOT enter illegally and are simply on expired visas or waiting for renewal. Illegal yes, but the Indian physicist waiting to hear back on his work extension don't exactly allow you to get your xenophobe on in the same way. This is about simple bigotry against Mexican immigrants, when efforts to deal with problems of undocumentation turn into bad law.
Earlier this morning the Oregonian called the last of the ballot measures for the 2008 cycle, projecting No votes on both Measure 61 (harsh crime bill) and Measure 64 (curtailing payroll deductions for political purposes). Both measures were nominally ahead in the hours after polls closed, and much like Gordon Smith held onto shrinking leads as ballots in more liberal areas were tallied.
And now like Gordon Smith, defeat must be their only sustenance--for the calls on 61 and 64 complete what may be an historic, epic defeat for not just the state Republican Party, but the conservative initiative movement that many say has plagued the state for well over a decade.
The principal losers were Bill Sizemore (64, among others) and Mannix (61, among others), and the fact that these two particular measures strongly embody each man's core values and legislative focus makes their defeat all the sweeter. Sizemore's raison d'etre has been hamstringing the political efforts of labor and public interest groups, and M64 was designed to cut the flow of funding, leaving them helpless to defend against Sizemore's future measures.
Mannix is a law and order guy, the hero of the criminal-industrial complex, and while he may take some solace in the passage of its desperately presented little brother M57, his crown jewel of incarcerative fury and expenditure has been rejected. And considering that the existence of M57 proved how easily state leaders thought M61 would pass without some counterbalance, the failure of M61 to even gain a majority--much less more votes than 57--must sting bitterly for Mannix.
Does this mean we're rid of these poxes on the polity? Of course not; I know for sure Sizemore already has 2010 measures going. What it does do, is help make an ever-easier case to voters that if it says Sizemore or Mannix, your vote should be NO. Both men were already on something of a losing streak; a couple of Sizemore's bills this year have appeared once or even twice before, and Mannix has recently been beaten by such electoral heavyweights as Ron Saxton and Mike Erickson. This utter, horrific, demoralizing and total defeat for both men stands to make them clear political pariahs, the Midas in Reverse Duo. Everything they touch turns to No! Couldn't happen to two nicer guys.
I am totally ripping this off from where it was posted on Facebook by Bus Project mucky-muck Garrett Downen, because--while unofficial--it offers solid advice from him and other members of that august body of do-gooders on how to view the myriad ballot initiatives up for a vote this year. To reiterate, these are not "official" Bus Project positions, but a "sense of the group" memorandum from several of their number. On with it!
Measure 54: Lets 18-year-olds vote in school board elections and gets rid of literacy tests for those elections. While reading and schools clearly go together, literacy tests are...you know...unconstitutional. Plus, what were we doing with stricter requirements for School Board than President? We can't believe we even need this measure but since we do, you should vote for it.
Measure 55: Allows gerrymandering political types to finish their terms in the districts that elected them, even after said wild district redrawing. We want to have Oregonians represented by the people they vote for. Logic and democracy tell you to vote yes.
Measure 56: Gets rid of kooky "double majority" rule for local property bond measures in May and November elections. Right now, a majority of registered voters need to turn out and then a majority of them need to vote for the bond for it to pass. What? While we want everybody to vote in every election, we figure that elections should be decided by voters and not the people who mistake their ballot for a phone bill.
Measure 57 is like Measure 61, but much better. Measure 61 is horrible (see below). Measure 57 was written by the Oregon Legislature and stiffens penalties for property crimes and drug-related offenses. It'll cost less than Measure 61 and it offers treatment to drug offenders and protects older folks.
The major difference between Measures 57 and 61 is that Measure 57 doesn't revel in the destruction of society. Both bills will probably pass, but the one with the most votes wins. So vote yes on 57 and no on 61. Really. Do it now.
(VERY handy comparison chart...! - promoted by torridjoe)
Oregon's newspapers are surprisingly consistent in their newspaper endorsements. They nearly unanimously support the four legislative referrals (measures 54-57) and the open/top two primary (measure 65); and they nearly unanimously oppose all the Sizemore/Mannix measures (measures 58-64).
Check out this chart: (citations after the jump)
Can you believe it? After almost two solid years of presidential campaign events and news, as of today Oregonians can finally begin voting for their choice of President. As the McCain campaign would say, turn those ballots back in soon after you get them, to avoid long lines at the polls on Nov 4th (cough). Seriously though, it IS a really good idea to turn them around quickly, because then the campaign you voted for can cross you off the list and concentrate on remaining voters. Obviously, the more votes that come in earlier in the process, the easier the job is to focus on those ballots not yet in. In states where early balloting has already begun, such as Georgia, turnout is high and as much as 50% of the electorate is projected to have actually voted BEFORE "Election Day." How long before everyone else votes like Oregon? Not long, I think.
The rift between myself and local curmudgeon Jack Bogdanski has been well-discussed and publicized, and there's no love lost. But to give credit where it's due, Bog has coined a wonderful phrase for the flurry of campaign literature that begins arriving in mailboxes the same time the ballots do: election porn. I don't know if other state campaigns have adjusted to the early voting period and disseminate their mailers accordingly in the cycle, but here in Oregon they know very well when to hit people as they're making up their minds.
At first it just seems like a laugh line or attention getting to use the term election porn, but it's actually a thoughtfully apt analogy. Like porn, the direct mail brochures we receive at election time are highly visual, usually sleazy, paid for by shadowy people--and while most decry them, in the privacy of our homes many of us still look at them.
The best porn usually comes from groups backing or opposing ballot measures, because typically there's no candidate who has to answer for the various scare tactics and misleading charges, and in many cases it's the only advertising the voter will see for the measure, as opposed to TV and radio for the candidates. And of course it helps when folks like Bill Sizemore and Kevin Mannix are the ones pushing the measures. (Not to say that Democratic advocacy is necessarily much loftier, for their part). Just yesterday I must have gotten a half dozen pieces, with three from the ballot measure campaigns that I'll show you and discuss below the fold.
It's become fairly de rigeur the last couple cycles, for candidates and advocacy groups to put together a website against your political opponent. Anyone remember "NovickInsultsDemocrats.com?" Yes, it even happens between candidates of the same party, shamefully enough.
I think this site will be a lot more broadly popular, however--NoMoreSizemore.com. Unless you're a cavedweller (not that there's anything wrong with that), you've probably heard of Bill Sizemore, the enormous git who makes a living from pushing ballot initiatives that invariably fail, but cost his opponents millions in "pushback dollars" in the process. And, oh yeah, he's got a shady criminal record too--he's currently back in court fighting contempt charges, based on the fact that he (or any of his cash cow organizations that hide his money and support his business) has yet to pay a dime in retribution for previous convictions.
Speaking of the money trail, the court proceedings have revealed some details about just how much Sizemore has gotten from his campaigns, mostly from Senor Love Daddy of the Desert, Loren Parks (pictured at right). The exceedingly wrinkled Parks is said to have pushed hundreds of thousands of dollars Sizemore's way...BEYOND what he was putting into the campaign coffers of Sizemore's iniatives. I don't have much more to say on Parks, but I don't think I've ever seen a picture of the creepy sex hypnotist who has such an outsized influence on Oregon politics, so I thought I'd treat everyone this Friday. (No, don't thank me! Part of the job).
Now, back to NoSizemore.com. A service of the union-backed Defend Oregon (unions primarily being the groups currently on the hook for beating back Sizemore's dreck, and waiting for their restitution money), the site takes you into Sizemore's brain, showing the four lobes (Fraud, Making Money from the Initiative System, Recycling Bad Ideas, and Attacking Workers and Schools) and trying to ascertain how they work: The graphics and animation are pretty humorous, and of course the research is typically solid.
Here's what DO had to say for themselves:
No matter how many times Oregon voters tell him no, and no matter how many times he and his organizations get caught using fraud and forgery to get measures on the ballot, Bill Sizemore keeps coming back with more ballot measures.
That leaves many Oregonians asking: What is Bill Sizemore thinking?
NoMoreSizemore.com details Sizemore's troubled history with election law, his ongoing violations and contempt of court judgments, investigations into signature fraud, and his long track record of sponsoring vague, poorly worded ballot measures that attack working Oregonians.
As voters begin casting their ballots in two short weeks, it's important that they know who is behind the measures they're deciding on—and what his motives are. NoMoreSizemore.com is designed to give voters a look inside the mind of Oregon's most notorious initiative profiteer.
Sizemore is the author of five of this year's ballot measures: 58, 59, 60, 63, and 64. The same operation—funders and signature gatherers—were also responsible for qualifying 61 and 62, which were filed by Kevin Mannix.
Being a journalist type, I asked Communications Director Scott Moore for his take on things. Being a kick ass guy, Scott delivered:
Bill Sizemore has hijacked Oregon's initiative system for his own profit. His methods of fraud, forgery, racketeering, and getting money from out-of-state millionaires have made a mockery of the system. We invite you to take a look inside his brain--if you dare.
Go check it out, and remember: if it's a Sizemore, say No More and vote NO.
Then go wash your hands and cleanse your eyeballs.
With the submission of signatures for this year's Oregon Ballot Measures, I thought I'd run down their chances of making the ballot and what they mean, along with listing those ideas that will not make it this year.
The Secretary of State's office has released this notice today:
A certified recount completed Friday showed Measure 53 passing narrowly, just as it did in the first count of the votes after the May 20 primary.
The results of the state-mandated recount showed Measure 53 passing with 490,158 in favor to 489,477 opposed, a difference of 681 votes.
The initial count showed the measure winning 489,592 to 489,042, a margin of 550 votes and well within the margin that triggers an automatic recount by the state. Under Oregon law, the state must conduct a recount when the margin in an election is less than one-fifth of one percent, which is 2,000 votes for every one million cast.
Measure 53 is a constitutional amendment that modifies civil forfeitures related to criminal activity and the use of the proceeds by law enforcement.
In the recount, some counties wound up with only little change in their results while three counties - Baker, Harney and Malheur - had no change at all from the first count to the recount.
This marked Oregon's first recount of a statewide ballot measure since 1994. Recounts that reverse the outcome of a race are extremely rare.
The official recount results can be seen at the state Elections Division web site, www.sos.state.or.us/elections.
Not particularly unexpected, particularly in Oregon where there are no "provisional" or "absentee" ballots to count--you simply run the ballots back through the counter again, and see what totals come back. In this case, 130 votes were added to the "Yes" margin, and 1001 "new" votes were found overall--about .1% of all ballots originally cast for the measure.
With final certification, this means that all three measures on the ballot passed--and I couldn't tell you when the last time THAT happened. I worry about the potential for abuse of these new rules, and why shouldn't I be suspicious about Kevin Mannix and his proposals to "improve" the criminal justice system. Won't it be mighty ironic if Mannix flamed out yet again as a candidate, but scores nothing but victories as an initiative hawker--remember, his Measure 11 booster bill is on the ballot in November, and if it gets more votes than the version passed by the Leg in February, his is the one that becomes law. Which would suck.
The following is a preview of the initiatives that are expected to/may qualify for the 2008 fall ballot. All signatures are due by July 3, 2008 if they have not already been submitted. Crossposted from Daily Kos (http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/6/25/113448/828/338/541717)
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Speaking of the money trail, the court proceedings have revealed some details about just how much Sizemore has gotten from his campaigns, mostly from Senor Love Daddy of the Desert, Loren Parks (pictured at right). The exceedingly wrinkled Parks is said to have pushed hundreds of thousands of dollars Sizemore's way...BEYOND what he was putting into the campaign coffers of Sizemore's iniatives. I don't have much more to say on Parks, but I don't think I've ever seen a picture of the creepy sex hypnotist who has such an outsized influence on Oregon politics, so I thought I'd treat everyone this Friday. (No, don't thank me! Part of the job). 