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Fans, we're nearing the end of the first extended road trip of the season--which has seemed awfully long already, even though only seven of the first dozen have been away games. I think it's just the newness of the season, getting only a couple of home-cooking games at a time before being subjected to those crazy pre-7pm starts when they go on the road. In any case, tonight's early rematch with Atlanta's Hawks proves to be the sternest test yet for this still-young and changing group of ballers we call our own. Everything and nothing rides on the game, if you can parse that odd concept: the Blazers are 4-0 so far on the trip, and any time you go out for more than a couple games and come back undefeated, so picking up a W in Scarlett O'Hara's hometown would be a huge accomplishment. On the other hand, I'm sure if you'd asked the team whether they'd be satisfied with 4-1 they'd bob their heads like bobbleheads. Atlanta as the last opponent on the trip is also dichotomously interesting; having already lost to them at home, I'm sure the Blazers would greatly love to return the pain on the Hawks' home floor. It seems like a tall order, given that Atlanta's record matches or exceeds Portland's 8-3 by a half game at 8-2, which includes a convincing beatdown of the Celtics in the Gahden. The Hawks are 4-0 at home and have won by an average of over 17 points, but on the other hand the Blazers are 5-1 in away games and are holding teams to just 82 points over their last six, with their own impressive average victory margin of 12. So if Portland can muster the win it will send all kinds of positive signals--undefeated road trip, quality road win over a top team, extend the overall winning streak to seven, stay alone at the top of the Northwest Division, triumph of the three-guard lineup against their toughest matchup to face it...but even with a loss, Blazers and their fans will have nothing to complain about on the plane ride home. The effectiveness of the 3-guard is what intrigues me most about tonight. It was after the Hawks loss that Coach Nate decided to shake things up, and the Miller-Blake-Roy-LaMarcus-Oden lineup was born against San Antonio to highly positive effect. They haven't lost a game since the switch, and the lineup shuffle has definitely had the desired salutory effect. Simply put, the team just looks like it flows better when that pesky small forward is taken out of the equation. I think it probably has something to do with the streaky nature of both Webster and Outlaw, and their inability to score off the dribble or create something for a teammate with any consistency. While both Webby and Trout can pour in the offense, if they start slowly it seems like it drags the whole team down. Now that Outlaw is out for two months, of course, either Webster will pick up his minutes directly, or he'll keep what he's getting and the balance will go to folks like Rudy (in a 3-guard setting) or Juwan Howard (in a 2-guard). But who knows how Nate will work things from game to game, and it's really not decided yet anyway that they will continue to use the 3-guard set in games. On the other hand, why mess with success? Not only did the change apparently allow for the floodgates to open when shooters started out hot, over the last three games against inferior but more physical opponents it also seems to have propped the team up until they could find a rhythm. Against the Bobcast on Saturday night, Brandon Roy faced a larger and talented Gerald Wallace at the 3-slot, but Charlotte ended up throwing whoever they could up against him in a vain attempt to slow him down. Ironically, when the matchups looked more favorable Roy seemed less involved in the grand scheme--but in the supposedly tough matchup, he shined. And even though it's a bit counterintuitive, given that when it comes to defense it's the guards who are easily the weakest, the defense also appears to have improved from the change. Maybe it's the fact that Outlaw and Martell aren't particularly good defenders either, and Miller/Blake/Roy are at least able to get out and throw a hand up into someone's face. Also, while Miller is nobody's Raja Bell, he has a real defensive peskiness that has turned up a lot of steals that didn't used to be there. Neutralizing the opponents' PG better, and getting a face in their SF, appears to be making a difference. And I'm still speculating, but the dominance of the interior may owe something to the clearer definition of roles under the 3-guard. By taking out that theoretical middle line of defense between guard and big man, Oden, Joel and LMA can perhaps make a clearer distinction on when to help and when to stay home, that the presence of a true forward on the court may have confused (particularly when our 3s can't usually be counted on to stay with their man on a consistent basis). With the relative few games yet played and the most recent opponents being strugglers on offense, maybe it's a confluence of good work and a smaller challenge. Or maybe it's just Greg Oden, who is starting to come alive on a more consistent basis, and on defense is already one of the top stoppers in the NBA--1st overall in blocks (and way ahead of the pack at 5 BLK per 48 minutes) and 3rd in overall rebounds per 48. Beyond the stats though, you can just see it during the games--even the beefiest, nastiest guys on the court are starting to shy away from taking it to the hole on Oden, changing their shots around the rim, and discovering that he is having a much better time positioning himself quickly and keeping his arms in the air with a straight-up jump to avoid the foul. And on offense? Ooh-la-la! I start to salivate when I see those 8 foot baseliners, baby hooks and sweet post moves on guys who are no schlubs, like Tim Duncan and Tyson Chandler. He hasn't put the whole package together offensively (he's watching Joel too closely when it comes to receiving passes in transition, for instance), but you can see the sparks of brilliance, and they're shorter and shorter between sparks. Enjoy the game--remember it's a 4pm PST start--and watch to see how well Roy does against Josh Smith and potentially Joe Johnson, whether the guards can keep up against Atlanta's strong backcourt, and whether Oden can stay in long enough early to kick the Blazers offense into gear. And if it doesn't work out? What--us worry?
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