I get the feeling he thinks he's capitalizing on a tea party zeitgeist of which he would be a natural leader, and he must seize the moment personal circumstances be damned--but this is really not a good way to announce your candidacy for governor:
Sizemore filed Monday to seek the Republican nomination for governor, to the surprise of GOP political insiders. Sizemore didn't return a call for comment, but he did release a statement to NW Republican saying he was willing to challenge a court order enjoining him from raising or spending money in politics. [emph mine]
"And I promise I will fight this scurrilous double murder charge, AND keep an honest and positive outlook on my race for all Oregonians." You have to go back to Olmert in Israel, with the "If I am indicted, I will resign" line--but hell, Sizemore's gone waaaay beyond simply being indicted. In any case, the line is surely an announcement and epitaph in one, for half the production cost. Carry on.
Senator Atkinson will primarily focus on the health and well-being of his family in the coming weeks and will make an announcement when the time is appropriate.
"Stephanie and I have recently been confronted with some serious health concerns that need to be addressed before I undertake such a massive task as running for Governor of our great state. We ask for your thoughts and prayers as well as your patience as we wade through this difficult time. I am not going away, but need time with my family. We greatly appreciate your strong support and kind words."
As Mapes notes, Atkinson and his family have been cursed with health issues of late, from his accidental shooting to his wife's apparently returning cancer. We certainly wish Jason and his wife good health and full recovery, and it's refreshing to see a politician quit something "to spend more time with their family"---and actually have it be true.
Atkinson leaves the door ajar for a return, but we have to consider the timing here. It's late October, and Atkinson cites "coming weeks" as a rough timeline. That takes us into the holiday season, obviously both a bad time for campaigning and to be away from the family you're trying to save.
So the earliest we might expect Atkinson to return to the Republican primary would be early 2010, which in a number of states would still be enough time to get ramped up before the election--but in Oregon we hold them in May, and people can start filling out ballots in late April. Maybe an incumbent with an existing war chest could pull off something like that, but a generally unknown state legislator who has built almost none of the required campaign apparatus?
Put it this way: Steve Novick started out better known and with a more memorable persona than Atkinson could ever manage, started his race for Senate a full year before the primary--and still struggled to gain recognition by a large majority of the state by May 2008. Maybe if he were a howler/crier like Glenn Beck he could earn the requisite attention (bad or good), but he's more like a Republican version of Ron Wyden--personable, smooth, generally low key.
So let's hypothesize that this is it for Jason in 2010. Who's that leave? Right now, Allen Alley and John Lim. As it stands, the Dem primary is looking like Yankees-Angels...with the Pittsburgh Republican Pirates waiting to face the winner in November. (And if you don't know your baseball, the Halos and Yanks are two of the top four teams in the game, while the Pirates have been cellar dwellers since the late 70s). Not to get too far ahead of ourselves, but I'd take the Democrats and the points on this one.
If you've been keeping one eye on the details of Gordon Smith's glorious career as Oregon's junion Senator, you may know that he's the proud owner of four golf clubs owned by King James in the 1500s...for the low low "I have lots of disposable income" price of $1.25mil. I guess there's good money in frozen peas, especially if you cut environmental corners along the way.
Here's Jeff Mapes to fill you in if you hadn't heard:
Smith has always been a true golf fanatic. He once paid $1.25 million for four really vintage golf clubs - including a putter owned by King James IV in 1504 - and can speak at passionate length about golfing in Scotland, having done so several times.
In 2005, Golf Digest reported that Smith's handicap was 8.2 - good enough to put him at 41st on their list of D.C. movers and shakers who play the game.
This year, Smith has disappeared from the list. He told the magazine he hasn't played enough to calculate his handicap. Smith "hasn't been hitting the links as much as he used to or would like to," his campaign spokesman, R.C. Hammond, told me, adding that the senator is "just working too hard."
Ah yes, "working too hard to golf." Funny how things were going so well until Democrats took the majority, that nobody had to work all that much? Now it's a full time job just keeping up with all that annoying legislation and committee work those busybody Dems keep creating. But that's his excuse and he's sticking to it. Which does, however, raise a good question:
If he's working too hard to golf, what's he been working on?
(Nice review of the media review! Frontrunners draw scrutiny; that's just how it is. If and when Novick becomes the perceived leader, he'll get it too--and I hope his supporters won't whine so fervently when it happens. On the other hand, much of Merkley's media problem has been excessive parsing and old-school politics; that's not likely to be repeated by Steve. - promoted by torridjoe)
I've been a ghost here for quite a while now, but Jeff Mapes' post this morning touched on something that I haven't seen talked about that much in this campaign -- why is Steve getting the sweet love that he is from the media? From Mapes on Politics:
The New York Times examines whether the news media is giving Barack Obama more favorable coverage than Hillary Clinton, which happens to be a charge that Clinton is routinely making these days on the campaign trail.
It seems we have the same thing developing in Oregon, where House Speaker Jeff Merkley, D-Portland, and his supporters have been raising a similar issue in his race for the U.S. Senate.
The gist of the complaints is that Merkley has been taking several rough knocks in the media while his primary opponent, Steve Novick, has been getting kid-glove coverage. And, not surprisingly, the Merkley folks would like to see more tough stories about the incumbent, Republican Sen. Gordon Smith.
He goes on to outline the specific complaints, with which, I am certain, you are all intimately familiar. He ends the column by asking:
Has the coverage been fair? What else should the media be covering?
To me, this question honestly misses the point. No candidate honestly wants "fair" coverage. They want favorable coverage. Getting favorable coverage is a huge part of the work of a political campaign. Here is what I posted in response:
I think what Merkley's people overlook in their criticisms of the media coverage in this campaign is just how hard Novick and his supporters have worked. Steve and his campaign, from the beginning, have been conscious of the advantages their candidate has by virtue (?) of his unique appearance and biography and have pushed him and his story hard. Steve has said himself, a number of times, that he views this as one of his main strengths.
Admittedly, I haven't followed the Merkley campaign as closely (just not as interesting, maybe) but from what I have seen they have sort of sat back and waited for the press to come to them. Yeah, they had a great kickoff tour; ok, they've got a list of endorsements longer than my arm; sure, Chuck Schumer has already crowned Jeff Merkley king of Oregon. But where, pun most certainly intendeed, is the hook? Why do I give two craps about this mid-level politician man getting bitten by his boring campaign dog?
The press have to write about Merkley, but what the campaign is giving them is BORING. When you don't feed the lions (to use another animal metaphor) they get hungry and start looking for meat.
Of course the media (Jeff Mapes included, obviously) don't like to draw attention to the fact that most of their political reporting is served up for them by one or the other of the campaigns. That's part of why politics tends to dominate the news so heavily during election cycles: reporters are being spoon-fed juicy stories by the campaigns.
Merkley's supporters who are complaining about media coverage are either missing the point or are being pretty disingenuous. If his coverage is bad, it's a failing of his campaign, not bias on the part of the press.
This isn't to say that the campaign and his supporters shouldn't go after specific stories that they view as inaccurate or out of context -- that's what campaigns are all about. But saying that the coverage is "unfair" is basically implying that there is some sort of national conspiracy to keep Jeff Merkley out of the papers and off of TV. You can't really believe that's the case.
It was a pretty big day for Gordon Smith in the news, and I'm sure John Frohnmayer was a little disappointed to have his big poll result rollout spoiled by Lottgate. But it didn't entirely escape notice; while reporting on the fallout of the Smith boo-boo, Congressional outlet The Hill had this to toss in:
Democratic state House Speaker Jeff Merkley, who is favored by the national Democrats over his primary opponent Steve Novick, is trailing Smith in the latest polls out of Oregon.
A Riley Research poll released this week shows Smith beating Merkley 39 percent to 12, with an Independent candidate pulling 14 percent.
Just incase you were interested I have a post up on Forward Oregon about Jeff Mapes's Saturday blog entry claiming that Gordon Smith's stock is ticking up.
Here are some juicy bits:
On Saturday, Oregonian columnist Jeff Mapes, commented on Chris Cillizza’s latest Senate rankings on his blog. Mapes asserts that sliding from 6 to 7 in Cillizza’s rankings is an up tick for Gordon Smith’s stock. However, Mapes narrative is manufactured.
Instead, Mapes would prefer to participate in echo chamber politics reporting on what a columnist writes, claiming it represents a change of stock for Gordon Smith.
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