This is the diary I had hoped to be able to write Wednesday, but with the closeness of the Smith-Merkley US Senate race was happy enough to write a diary talking about the reasons why Merkley would win, as he indeed has. This diary serves as my review of the Oregon campaign, in what can, without a doubt, be described as the best cycle for Oregon Democrats and other progressive organizations in my lifetime. All of our goals were met and we beat back every single bad ballot measure to boot.
The genesis for this title is a Willamette Week article titled "Red Dawn" published in July of 2006 which claimed, at the time, to show evidence of a Republican surge in the Beaver State. It goes without saying that those predictions were dead wrong as the Democratic party has more than tripled its registration edge in my home state and seems poised to post strong wins statewide. Below are my final summary predictions and some things to watch Thursday.
With a week to go, it is time for me to really make some predictions about where the races will go this fall. I will update them on November 4 but if I had to guess, what is below is what I think will happen. The real question for Democrats, in summary, will be not will they increase their majority but by how much.
Hey folks, I just got home from the fabulous Merkley/Gore event in Portland and wanted to write up my reactions. Besides finally meeting the lovely Sarah Lane in person, it was a great time and certainly worth reporting on!
I assume most folks already know about this but just in case you don't former VP Al Gore is going to be in Portland on Friday, headlining an event for Merkley. Book your tickets now as the last time Gore came out here, it sold out quickly:
In this edition of my reports on Oregon political news, I talk about how the Oregon Democrats keep improving their chances of a big win in 19 days. Namely, voter registration for Democrats has crushed all previously existing records and Jeff Merkley, for the second quarter in a row, outraised Gordon Smith.
The latest in my postings on Oregon politics is a discussion of how I intend to vote when I get my ballot on Friday or Saturday. I am posting this now both to foster discussion and because, especially on the ballot measures, I am willing to listen to arguments on whether I am wrong to think about voting the way I intend to.
In this edition of my irregular series on Oregon political news, I discuss another set of interesting stories that have popped up. These include Sen. Wyden's (D-OR) new ad for Merkley as well as the Bill Sizemore's admission that he was using private foundation funds for his own purposes.
The following is my update of the races that will be contested next month in the state of Oregon. My projections will be updated probably one more time shortly before election day. I do not work for any campaign and my projections are my own.
This post is a fun one for me to write. Simply put, it is about how the Republicans are absolutely losing faster than I even thought possible in our home state. Be confident of a win folks!
The following is my analysis of the latest numbers put out by Survey USA. I am choosing to analyze this both because I want to explain to folks what is going on but also because SUSA does provide crosstabs, making analysis easier. This is NOT just another poll diary.
Enough has happened in the past few weeks for me to do one of my occasional Oregon political news roundups. Specifically, the following four stories will be covered:
1. Gordon Smith the Elitist-Smith is revealed to be at least the 10th richest member of Congress. 2. One expensive movie ticket-The Governator no shows for a Smith fundraiser, choosing to appear via satellite. 3. Republican Wingard gets hit for child abuse conviction in new ad. 4. Democrats continue rise in voter registration.
Just a quick post for these two ads below that are absolutely the two slimiest I have seen out of either camp this year.
Quote:
Republican Sen. Gordon Smith has enlisted the victim of a serial rapist to appear in an emotional TV ad accusing his Democratic rival, Jeff Merkley, of failing to crack down on serious sex offenders.
Tiffany Edens, who became well-known in Oregon as she fought convicted rapist Richard Troy Gillmore's attempt to win parole, charges that Merkley voted in the state Legislature against extending the statute of limitations on rape.
"Jeff Merkley," Edens says, staring into the camera as the commercial concludes, "you should have voted to protect victims, not rapists."
The following is my look at the races in Oregon this fall, from statewide down to state legislative and excluding ballot measures. Unlike my previous updates, I rank each race within its category, rather than by district number.
Well not quite. But US Senate candidate Jeff Merkley found out today how quickly a foot in the mouth (not to mention too much food) can go not only viral but pretty quickly to the mainstream media.
On the road visiting 100 towns in Oregon, Merkley might want to apologize to his would-be rural constituents for giving the impression that news doesn't quite filter out to the hinterlands. (Such is not the case.)
Being too busy campaigning is not usually a good excuse for being uninformed. While at what looks to be a nice, casual picnic gathering Merkley is stumped in an area he touts as being his strong suit, foreign affairs.
[Two days after the invasion of Georgia by Russia]
Questioner: With your national security background, what do think about what's going on in Georgia.
Merkley: [munch... munch... munch]
Questioner: I know you've been on the road, so you probably haven't exactly kept up...
Merkley: I haven' heard about what's going on in Georgia.
Questioner: What's the strategic implication of this?
Merkley: So fill me on what's happening in Georgia
Questioner: Well in South Ossetia, the Russians have invaded.
Merkley: The country of Georgia!
Questioner: Yeah, the country of Georgia.
[laughter]
Questioner: It's a different Georgia
Merkley: I'm thinking, Atlanta? Jimmy Carter... I'll have to find out the details. I have been on the road the last few days.
Video of the exchange (made by a Republican "tracker") was made public early this morning by a conservative media blog, Hot Air.
Merkley flunks both Georgia test and table manners Hot Air
The Oregon race for the Senate favors the Democratic challenger, Jeff Merkley, over Republican incumbent Gordon Smith, which normally would not surprise many given Oregon’s usual tilt to the Left. However, after seeing Merkley in action, even Oregonians have to wonder how they could choose him over almost anyone. On a campaign stop on August 9th, two days after Russia launched an attack on Georgia that captured the attention of the world, Merkley seemed stumped by a question about it
posted at 7:29 am (EST) on August 13, 2008 by Ed Morrissey
With the end of July nearing and the election now only 99 days away, I thought it was appropriate to publish a review of the last month's action in Oregon politics. In addition, I preview what lies ahead in August and give updates on previous race ratings or other information I have talked about in my earlier diaries.
Yesterday I wrote about how Gordon Smith and the Oregon Republican party had released a web ad and website smearing Jeff Merkley's record. Today, the DSCC fired back with a brilliant ad nailing Gordon Smith on the war on Iraq. See more below the jump...
Proof that Jeff Merkley is gaining fast in his quest to be the next Senator from the great state of Oregon increases by the day. In the latest, the Oregon GOP goes after Merkley's supposed campaign finance violations and then puts up a pathetic website attempting to smear Merkley's tax record. More below the jump.
In order so that those of you who have been reading my Oregon politics diaries can understand who these people are I have been talking about, I present the following entry. For brevity's sake, only statewide and congressional candidates will be discussed.
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