ORP

The Stillborn Gubernatorial Campaign Announcement by: torridjoe Tue Nov 24, 2009 at 01:15:34 AM PST I get the feeling he thinks he's capitalizing on a tea party zeitgeist of which he would be a natural leader, and he must seize the moment personal circumstances be damned--but this is really not a good way to announce your candidacy for governor: Sizemore filed Monday to seek the Republican nomination for governor, to the surprise of GOP political insiders. Sizemore didn't return a call for comment, but he did release a statement to NW Republican saying he was willing to challenge a court order enjoining him from raising or spending money in politics. [emph mine] "And I promise I will fight this scurrilous double murder charge, AND keep an honest and positive outlook on my race for all Oregonians." You have to go back to Olmert in Israel, with the "If I am indicted, I will resign" line--but hell, Sizemore's gone waaaay beyond simply being indicted. In any case, the line is surely an announcement and epitaph in one, for half the production cost. Carry on. Discuss :: (0 Comments)

ORP Already Waving White Flag on Blumenauer for 2010 by: torridjoe Fri Nov 13, 2009 at 14:09:39 PM PST A small morsel of Friday political amusement, as I continue to recover from an accident involving rain, embedded rail lines on Portland's Central Eastside, and a motor scooter: check out the lead to the latest missive received via email from our friends at the Oregon GOP, as expressed by ORP Chair Bob Tiernan: “The House vote on Saturday is disappointing for Oregonians as Nancy Pelosi, Kurt Schrader, David Wu, and Peter DeFazio ignored the concerns of voters and rammed a trillion dollar 1,990 page government-run health care bill through Congress, ignoring pledges of transparency and bi-partisanship. Oregonians for generations will be forced to deal with the consequences of this legislation that increases health care costs, increases taxes on small businesses and the middle class, cuts Medicare and puts a Washington bureaucrat between you and your doctor. “Last Tuesday, the American people made clear at the polls that they oppose bigger government, more spending and higher taxes, but this is exactly what they are getting with this new government-run health care legislation. Kurt Schrader, David Wu, and Peter DeFazio chose to vote with their liberal buddies in Washington rather than in the best interest of their constituents back home, and this vote will not be forgotten by Oregon voters in 2010,” Chairman Tiernan concluded. [emphs mine] Blah blah, ho hum, totally expected--the ORP is trying to make the case that those liberal overreachers from the Democratic side of Oregon's delegation are running afoul of their constituents, and risk their elephantitis (on several levels) in the next election. As an aside, is it just me, or does the use of the phrase "liberal buddies" conjure an image more reflective of a beginning swim class? "You can't swim in section 2 without a liberal buddy!" OK, maybe it's just me.  But anyhow, what might the discerning reader notice from this screed? Isn't someone missing? Don't we in fact have FOUR Democrats representing us in DC? They've got Schrader on there, natch--he's by far the most vulnerable member of the federal delegation, although that's doesn't necessarily mean he's truly vulnerable (and now would be a good time to offer published thanks to Schrader for getting the daily double "No on Stupak, yes on HCR" vote right). DeFazio's there too, and I'm sure despite the flameout of Sid Leiken they'll come up with someone to challenge him. David Wu isn't necessarily anyone's favorite in OR-1, but his district keeps getting bluer and legitimate challengers from the right fewer (Perhaps you could move one district over and try again, Mike Erickson!) Of course, the Congressman-Who-Apparently-Shall-Not-Be-Mentioned is Earl Blumenauer, OR-3 and the LEAST vulnerable member of Congress from Oregon, even more so than Greg Walden. Is this by accident? I suppose it's always possible, but that's a harder case to make when he omits Earl twice in two paragraphs.  No, there's likely a more calculated reason he's not there, and I've already mentioned it: there's not a chance in hell Earl is losing his seat next year, not even if Brandon Roy retires and declares as a Republican. (Joel Przybilla, maybe!) The email, while in newsletter format--there are pictures of Walden with the troops, and reprints of the latest Gallup claiming a generic GOP voter advantage nationwide--is at its root a fundraising vehicle, but there's no vehicle the Republicans own that can drive Blumenauer out of office. And they know it, apparently. Maybe I should applaud their sense of reality, but it's a rather striking thing to not even TRY to fundraise off the votes Blumenauer casts. Obviously they think they can't say about his constituency what they're trying to say about the others--that they'll be upset about the House vote for health care reform. And just as obviously, they're almost assuredly correct. But is there any evidence that they're fundamentally closer to being right in the other three districts? All three are Democratic-leaning in their registrations, Schrader at +23,000, DeFazio at +39,000, and Wu now at a whopping + 57,000 according to last month's tallies by the Elections Division. (Of course those are not locked-in votes for the Democrat, but they're even less locked in for a Republican). And if they simply follow the mood and inclinations of the greater national electorate, they're much likelier to be on board with the Dirty Three, than they are upset with them. I guess admitting 12 months out that you're probably screwed in all four districts was just too much to face for Tiernan and the GOP--but they've already come to terms with the idea that Oregon's largest city and country are not only infertile ground, they're fields not even worth rhetorically tilling. It's a start.   Discuss :: (0 Comments)

Atkinson "Suspends" Goob Campaign, Could Be Out for Good by: torridjoe Wed Oct 21, 2009 at 13:54:35 PM PDT Following up on indicators detailed by Jeff Mapes showing little to no campaign activity recently for 2010 goobernatorial candidate Jeff Atkinson, a southwest Oregon Republican, Mapes is now reporting that Atkinson has released a statement this afternoon "suspending" his campaign: Senator Atkinson will primarily focus on the health and well-being of his family in the coming weeks and will make an announcement when the time is appropriate. "Stephanie and I have recently been confronted with some serious health concerns that need to be addressed before I undertake such a massive task as running for Governor of our great state. We ask for your thoughts and prayers as well as your patience as we wade through this difficult time. I am not going away, but need time with my family. We greatly appreciate your strong support and kind words." As Mapes notes, Atkinson and his family have been cursed with health issues of late, from his accidental shooting to his wife's apparently returning cancer. We certainly wish Jason and his wife good health and full recovery, and it's refreshing to see a politician quit something "to spend more time with their family"---and actually have it be true. Atkinson leaves the door ajar for a return, but we have to consider the timing here. It's late October, and Atkinson cites "coming weeks" as a rough timeline. That takes us into the holiday season, obviously both a bad time for campaigning and to be away from the family you're trying to save. So the earliest we might expect Atkinson to return to the Republican primary would be early 2010, which in a number of states would still be enough time to get ramped up before the election--but in Oregon we hold them in May, and people can start filling out ballots in late April. Maybe an incumbent with an existing war chest could pull off something like that, but a generally unknown state legislator who has built almost none of the required campaign apparatus? Put it this way: Steve Novick started out better known and with a more memorable persona than Atkinson could ever manage, started his race for Senate a full year before the primary--and still struggled to gain recognition by a large majority of the state by May 2008. Maybe if he were a howler/crier like Glenn Beck he could earn the requisite attention (bad or good), but he's more like a Republican version of Ron Wyden--personable, smooth, generally low key. So let's hypothesize that this is it for Jason in 2010. Who's that leave? Right now, Allen Alley and John Lim. As it stands, the Dem primary is looking like Yankees-Angels...with the Pittsburgh Republican Pirates waiting to face the winner in November. (And if you don't know your baseball, the Halos and Yanks are two of the top four teams in the game, while the Pirates have been cellar dwellers since the late 70s). Not to get too far ahead of ourselves, but I'd take the Democrats and the points on this one.  Discuss :: (0 Comments)

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