Fans, we're nearing the end of the first extended road trip of the season--which has seemed awfully long already, even though only seven of the first dozen have been away games. I think it's just the newness of the season, getting only a couple of home-cooking games at a time before being subjected to those crazy pre-7pm starts when they go on the road. In any case, tonight's early rematch with Atlanta's Hawks proves to be the sternest test yet for this still-young and changing group of ballers we call our own.
Everything and nothing rides on the game, if you can parse that odd concept: the Blazers are 4-0 so far on the trip, and any time you go out for more than a couple games and come back undefeated, so picking up a W in Scarlett O'Hara's hometown would be a huge accomplishment. On the other hand, I'm sure if you'd asked the team whether they'd be satisfied with 4-1 they'd bob their heads like bobbleheads.
Atlanta as the last opponent on the trip is also dichotomously interesting; having already lost to them at home, I'm sure the Blazers would greatly love to return the pain on the Hawks' home floor. It seems like a tall order, given that Atlanta's record matches or exceeds Portland's 8-3 by a half game at 8-2, which includes a convincing beatdown of the Celtics in the Gahden. The Hawks are 4-0 at home and have won by an average of over 17 points, but on the other hand the Blazers are 5-1 in away games and are holding teams to just 82 points over their last six, with their own impressive average victory margin of 12.
So if Portland can muster the win it will send all kinds of positive signals--undefeated road trip, quality road win over a top team, extend the overall winning streak to seven, stay alone at the top of the Northwest Division, triumph of the three-guard lineup against their toughest matchup to face it...but even with a loss, Blazers and their fans will have nothing to complain about on the plane ride home.
The effectiveness of the 3-guard is what intrigues me most about tonight. It was after the Hawks loss that Coach Nate decided to shake things up, and the Miller-Blake-Roy-LaMarcus-Oden lineup was born against San Antonio to highly positive effect. They haven't lost a game since the switch, and the lineup shuffle has definitely had the desired salutory effect.
Simply put, the team just looks like it flows better when that pesky small forward is taken out of the equation. I think it probably has something to do with the streaky nature of both Webster and Outlaw, and their inability to score off the dribble or create something for a teammate with any consistency. While both Webby and Trout can pour in the offense, if they start slowly it seems like it drags the whole team down.
Now that Outlaw is out for two months, of course, either Webster will pick up his minutes directly, or he'll keep what he's getting and the balance will go to folks like Rudy (in a 3-guard setting) or Juwan Howard (in a 2-guard). But who knows how Nate will work things from game to game, and it's really not decided yet anyway that they will continue to use the 3-guard set in games.
On the other hand, why mess with success? Not only did the change apparently allow for the floodgates to open when shooters started out hot, over the last three games against inferior but more physical opponents it also seems to have propped the team up until they could find a rhythm. Against the Bobcast on Saturday night, Brandon Roy faced a larger and talented Gerald Wallace at the 3-slot, but Charlotte ended up throwing whoever they could up against him in a vain attempt to slow him down. Ironically, when the matchups looked more favorable Roy seemed less involved in the grand scheme--but in the supposedly tough matchup, he shined.
And even though it's a bit counterintuitive, given that when it comes to defense it's the guards who are easily the weakest, the defense also appears to have improved from the change. Maybe it's the fact that Outlaw and Martell aren't particularly good defenders either, and Miller/Blake/Roy are at least able to get out and throw a hand up into someone's face. Also, while Miller is nobody's Raja Bell, he has a real defensive peskiness that has turned up a lot of steals that didn't used to be there. Neutralizing the opponents' PG better, and getting a face in their SF, appears to be making a difference.
And I'm still speculating, but the dominance of the interior may owe something to the clearer definition of roles under the 3-guard. By taking out that theoretical middle line of defense between guard and big man, Oden, Joel and LMA can perhaps make a clearer distinction on when to help and when to stay home, that the presence of a true forward on the court may have confused (particularly when our 3s can't usually be counted on to stay with their man on a consistent basis). With the relative few games yet played and the most recent opponents being strugglers on offense, maybe it's a confluence of good work and a smaller challenge.
Or maybe it's just Greg Oden, who is starting to come alive on a more consistent basis, and on defense is already one of the top stoppers in the NBA--1st overall in blocks (and way ahead of the pack at 5 BLK per 48 minutes) and 3rd in overall rebounds per 48. Beyond the stats though, you can just see it during the games--even the beefiest, nastiest guys on the court are starting to shy away from taking it to the hole on Oden, changing their shots around the rim, and discovering that he is having a much better time positioning himself quickly and keeping his arms in the air with a straight-up jump to avoid the foul.
And on offense? Ooh-la-la! I start to salivate when I see those 8 foot baseliners, baby hooks and sweet post moves on guys who are no schlubs, like Tim Duncan and Tyson Chandler. He hasn't put the whole package together offensively (he's watching Joel too closely when it comes to receiving passes in transition, for instance), but you can see the sparks of brilliance, and they're shorter and shorter between sparks.
Enjoy the game--remember it's a 4pm PST start--and watch to see how well Roy does against Josh Smith and potentially Joe Johnson, whether the guards can keep up against Atlanta's strong backcourt, and whether Oden can stay in long enough early to kick the Blazers offense into gear. And if it doesn't work out? What--us worry?
I probably saw more of this game than the Denver contest Thursday, but only via pirate feeds that had a nasty habit of dropping out. Such is the life when you're trying to catch the Blazers without a Comcast box!
I'm actually in Grand Mound WA, just north of Centralia at the famed Great Wolf Lodge. It's like D&D meets Water Country USA--a hyper-expensive "resort" hotel for families (which means kids). It's pretty cool, and the little Joes are having a ball--but due to a tremendously anal set of house rules (like being "required" to give your room number at the hotel restaurant even if you're not charging anything to the room) I was also unable to get the DirectTV League Pass credit purchased properly ($11.95!)
So the upshot is that I'm gonna give this game the brief treatment again, with apologies for not having seen enough of it to offer a recap in full detail. And although it was a win for the Blazers, and it counts just as much as the great victory over the Spurs just six days ago, it wasn't pretty.
Ironically, while the Blazers are now 11 for their last 11 home games and have now beaten the Timberwolves eight straight times, the total margin of victory for Portland in the two games at the Garden is six...97-95 tonight, and 97-93 back in November, as opposed to 88-83 and 103-82 in Minneapolis.
What makes the Wolves competitive in Portland's house? Beats the heck out of me, but Ryan Gomes was apparently happy to be here--his 28 points on 12-19 shooting blistered the Blazers and was team high. Randy Foye also dropped in 23, 10 of which were free throws. What was more surprising was the 18 points from Sebastian Telfair, the ex-Blazer who is usually to made baskets what Kevin McHale is to broad grins.
One Wolf who was not so Great in our Lodge was Kevin Love, who went to high school about 5 miles away from the Blazers' practice facility. He went 3-8 with just six points and five fouls in 25 minutes, which represents a serious improvement over his 0-7 in November, (He did finish with 7 rebounds, however).
While the game was close throughout, and the Blazers never seemed to treat the game with any urgency (afterwards Brandon Roy suggested that they were looking forward to the L*kers game coming up) the Wolves were working from behind almost the entire game and never built more than a three point lead.
Brandon Roy was once again basically unstoppable, scoring 31 points on 13-19 shooting despite long stretches of quietude. He also led the team with 6 assists (he and Nic Batum combined for 9 of the team's paltry 14 dimes on 35 buckets, a good indication about the lack of offensive flow in this game).
Travis Outlaw had one of his best games of the season, scoring 14 points--which isn't unusual for him off the bench at all. What IS unusual is nine rebounds, two steals and three blocks to go with it. By far his two biggest baskets were two dunks in the fourth quarter--one a solid jam off a steal and outlet by Brandon, and the other a simply monstrous putback slam off the Blake miss from three, to put Portland up 92-88 with 1:24 to go. He came out of nowhere and flashed that amazing elevation, saiing through the lane over everyone to grab the bound and jam it home in one quick and frightening motion.
LaMarcus Aldridge couldn't hit diddly on this night; I don't think I've ever seen him go 2-14 from the field before. But would you believe he still got a double-double? After getting just four boards against the Nuggets, he was all over the offensive glass, getting seven to go along with four D-reebs. But it was his aggressiveness to the hole that paid off dearly for the Blazers; not only did he get 11 foul shots, he made 10 of them. (Would you believe these two teams combined to go 36-39 from the line? The Blazers were the ones who missed two, natch!)
Portland is definitely playing with fire in their game; the team defense is gone again, uncertain of its return. And while they were never in any real kind of hole as they've done a lot in the past, it was palpably frustrating to see a frankly inferior team hang so dangerously close in the Garden.
In the end though, good teams close out games in which they have the lead (being 20-0 at home now with a halftime lead), and good teams beat bad teams, no matter how motivated they are--or how unmotivated and lackadaisical the Blazers were. This was what I'd call a "nervous chuckle" game--everything turned out OK, and the Blazers ended up taking care of their business, but it would have shocked no one to see Minnesota steal this game, and watching it was like watching a drunk gymnast do a beam routine--after a fifth of Beam.
So chalk up the 39th W, the 26th home W...and bring on the L$kers!!
If you know me, will it surprise you to know I'm feeling contrary on the Bazers again today? Just like I wasn't as perturbed about the San Antonio loss as were the rest of the commentariat, in several accounts, particularly at The O but also Barrett's Blog, there's another of those rollercoaster "where are we" analyses that wants to slap The Day The Blazers Learned Team D on this 20-point win over the Minnesota Timberwolves.
There's certainly no denying it was a solid win, but it was also a needed win to forestall any further questioning of the Blazers' status as a potential upper-half West playoff team. And quite obviously something happened Friday night; the recently hot-scoring Wolves were held to 82 after averaging nearly 100 for the year and over 100 against some elite opposing defenses (which does not include Portland's, of course). As a team, the Wolves shot 43%.
Statistically then, Minnesota clearly had an awful game offensively. As usual, the real task is attributing those stats to a particular failure--great D or bad O, or more commonly what was the mix? I'm not sure the Wolves didn't simply play the role of the Blazers from the previous night, who got enough open looks to compete offensively, but just didn't have the touch.
One thing that IS true is that they took fewer shots than both the Blazers (67-76) and their average (83+). Was it because of tenacious, more focused defense that caused a lot of turnovers? Not unusually so; the Wolves committed right at their season average of 15. The Blazers did actually get 8 steals, which is a very good total for them, and they converted into 18 points off Wolf mistakes, so that's a point in favor of "good defense."
Could it be attributed to the Blazers' slow pace that bleeds possessions from both teams? They took 76, which is a couple under their already low average of 79. That's got to have something to do with it, but the effect is probably minor.
Conclusion? A better than average defensive effort against a better than average offensive team at the moment, at least in terms of results and especially the things that they can manage to their advantage (few FG att against, points off TO, fewer shots and bounds). And I'm flat out THRILLED that the natural team leaders--Brandon Roy and Joel Przybilla--are begining to get vocal on the court and start "persuasively" repositioning and motivating teammates in-game.
So no, I'm as cautiously optimistic as everyone else that there are some positive takeaways, some execution-based but more mental and communication based, from the win. Indeed it may both correct the team's major flaw (or noticeably bandage it) and give the team confidence to re-engage elites like Tony Parker and the Spurs Sunday--but not if they play like they did against Minnesota.
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