Oh, those wacky Republicans! They'll drop a blatant falsehood in your lap, and when you take the time to point out how absurd and facts-bereft it is, they're chastened for about 2 seconds, then just go on repeating it in hopes that someone else who hears about it hasn't been told it's a load of Grade A Crapola. Remember "I killed the bridge to nowhere?" How about "Obamacare has death panels!" I could go on, but neither of us have THAT kind of time, to be exhaustive on all the lying we've seen from the party.
I guess our OR GOP was just itching to get in on the tricks and games the national peeps were playing, so in their latest fundraising email, titled "Help Tell the Democrats We've Had Enough," they brought out a fairly new chestnut, ostensibly about new taxes emanating from the House-passed climate change bill earlier this year. The bromides against a non-stimulating stimulus, the state tax fairness bills ORGOP is leading the charge against, and pending health care legislation are all familiar targets. But here's a newish one, in which they claim that Congress:
• Pass[ed] a huge energy tax that adds an estimated $1,761 to every family’s yearly budget – the equivalent of a 15% tax increase.
Wow, that would be steep indeed! Would, of course, that it were true. Near as I can tell, this particular trope started when the Competitive Enterprise Institute, a right-wing/libertarian economic think tank, claimed to have found "secret Treasury dcouments" that outlined costs showing a burden that equalled $1,761 when spread out among each US household. That document exists, it seems,but the problem is that it's...irrelevant:
The new numbers spring from some Treasury Department documents recently acquired by the Competitive Enterprise Institute, a conservative think tank, through a Freedom of Information Act request. Some of the documents are from 2008, shortly after the election, according to the group, and others are undated, though they appear to be from early 2009.
Nowhere in the documents does the Treasury Department cite the $1,761 figure. It seems Alexander got that number from a Sept. 15, 2009, story by Declan McCullagh, a blogger who writes the "Taking Liberties" column for CBS News. (Our calls to Alexander's office were not returned.) So it's worth noting that Alexander is relying not on a study by an economist, but on an estimate from a blogger.
But back to Alexander's original claim. His statement that households will pay $1,761 in new taxes every year is based on a blogger's incorrect assumptions and overly simple math. The estimate does not account for revenue that will be returned to consumers in the form of rebates and other efficiency measures. Furthermore, the number is based on old numbers; the Treasury estimate was written on the premise that all permits would be sold, which, ultimately, is not the form that the Waxman-Markey legislation has taken. Finally, both Alexander and McCullagh portray money raised by selling these permits as a tax. We rate Alexander's claim False.
Too bad, so sad. By the way, do you know what the real estimate is for the Waxman bill that passed the House? According to the CBO report on it, something slightly lower than $1,761...how's $160 per year? That seemed like news to our friends at ORGOP; when I asked them where they got their numbers, they had to check--but then called me back and gave me their source: the Republican National Committee. Well, THAT explains a lot, doesn't it? :)
Regular readers know that Street Roots is one of my favorite "charities,"...and I put that word in quotes with a purpose, because while they are indeed a non-profit organization dedicated to serving the transitionally and chronically housing-challenged, and provide their clients with a range of social service referrals and help, they'd probably kill me if I referred to them as a "charity." That's almost the opposite of what they're about, a real hand-up-not-out kind of organization that specializes in the economic and social empowerment of folks who often have little of the former and almost none of the latter.
I love SR because it changes the frame that too often pervades our view of the homeless: that they're a faceless horde of incompetent, lazy bums who got where they are because they didn't try hard enough, or didn't show enough self-control to stay away from poor choices. SR serves our community by treating them instead as able, creative individuals who want to improve their situation and just need a little assistance to fill the gap or give them the confidence boost they need. Not only does street vending give them that chance, it sets a vivid counterexample of poverty as a temporary condition that affects regular folks, not a permanent label slapped onto the socially worthless.
The little paper that could has made it 10 years, and is one of the best independent newspapers of its kind in the country. It's no slouch as an original news source of ANY kind in Portland, covering stories that fall through the cracks of traditional media with every bit the same journalistic fervor and standards--if not more.
But while you shouldn't argue with someone who buys ink by the barrel, those barrels cost serious money. Can you help? I'll let them take over on the pitch:
Your donation goes to support individuals experiencing homelessness and poverty that sell the newspaper and access resources throughout the Portland region.
"Street Roots gave us a spark of hope," says Donna Bacon who became housed while with the organization. "They are there for their vendors and homeless people who want to change their lives for something better."
Vance Schweigart sells the newspaper downtown and in the Irvington neighborhood. Schweigart says that selling Street Roots allows him to pay for a room each night. "Street Roots customers are kind to me. They treat me like a real person, and not like a bum."
Selling Street Roots allows for individuals to gain access to a supplemental income. It also allows for individuals to rebuild their lives in dignity - without having to beg.
It also allows individuals experiencing homelessness and poverty to give something back to the community. With each purchase of a newspaper you are helping an individual improve their quality of life - wheather that's helping them access a roof over their heads or allowing them to eat healthy foods not available to many poor folk. The reader also gets something in return with a quality community newspaper. When you purchase Street Roots you are helping rebuild a person's life.
The best way to help is to become a recurring-gift member. Here are the options:
Rainy Day Supporter: $5.00 a month will provide the necessary materials (rain jackets, hand warmers, lip balm, etc.) for 10 vendors to stay warm and dry during the winter months.
Coffee Break Supporter: $10.00 a month will provide fresh water, tea and coffee to more than 200 individuals who sell the newspaper.
Tech Support: $25.00 a month will provide computers and Internet service for more than 200 vendors experiencing homelessness and poverty.
Front-Page Supporter: $50.00 a month helps produce one page of the newspaper a month. Street Roots delivers Portlanders some of the best journalism in the city. This is a great way to support this.
Cover-to-Cover Supporter: $100.00 a month covers the cost of one entire edition of the paper each year. A single print-run puts up to $10,000 directly in the hands of people experiencing homelessness and poverty.
But either way, your donation will support one of the best things Portland has going to help its own. If nothing else, next time you see a vendor hawking the latest edition of Street Roots, fish out a dollar and give someone a reason to keep going. In these times it's easier than ever to feel like things are hopeless; a twenty-second human interaction may not feel like much to you, but to someone who's having a rough go of life at the moment, it can make a world of difference. Loaded Orygun says thanks for being part of the solution.
Janice Thompson at Democracy Reform Oregon reminded me that there's an excellent, longer-term report on this kind of stuff that they published earlier this year. The more the better!
The report found the average Oregon legislative race raised $124,000 in 2008, a 51 percent increase from 2004. But even as the total amount increased, the actual competitiveness of the races decreased: Incumbents running for re-election were likely to hold on to their seats and fundraising was often lopsided.
Legislative candidates weren’t the only ones raising money in 2008. Ballot measure committees also raised significant amounts. Unions, which gave one of every three dollars in the state overall, contributed the most to ballot measure committees.
While the amount of money contributed to elections raised dramatically in 2008, the number of people giving did not. Only 0.1 percent of Oregon’s population gave money to a candidate, party, or ballot measure during the election cycle.
Think Joe Lieberman's direct attacks on Democrats and the Democratic Party were specifically limited to President-Elect Obama? Well, we know there were also kind things said about Republican Senators Norm Coleman and Susan Collins, but now via WaPo comes more info about who ELSE Joe was working to get elected in 2008. And there's another layer of quotes and reportage indicating that despite all this (although WaPo reports Merkley was unaware of the donation to Smith at the time), Oregon's newest Senator actually voted to reward Lieberman. Here's how it went:
Having ridden the wave of support for President-elect Barack Obama, Udall and Merkley spoke out in favor of the spirit of reconciliation and moving on from the campaign, in which Lieberman was one of the highest profile supporters of the Republican presidential ticket.
But no one in the room knew, as Merkley spoke, that Lieberman had supported Merkley's opponent, Sen. Gordon Smith (R-Ore.). Lieberman, through his Reuniting Our Country PAC, gave Smith's reelection bid $5,000 on Oct. 10, according to reports filed with the Federal Election Commission.
...not even Merkley knew of Lieberman's backing of Smith in their critical Senate race, until Capitol Briefing alerted his staff today.
"We were surprised to hear this news, but it's time to put the election behind us. Jeff Merkley is looking forward to working with all his new colleagues on an agenda that will put our nation back on track," said Julie Edwards, spokeswoman for Merkley.
As WaPo points out, Smith maintained a money edge throughout the election campaign, and lost by over 50,000 votes--so that wasn't exactly money well spent. (And you have to wonder, how many people or groups who contributed to Joe's Wallet for Weasels would appreciate the idea that their money was going to people like Smith and NY's even more odious Rep. Peter Kin?)
But it illuminates the situation perfectly: if Lieberman had his way, there would have been one fewer Senator (at least) deciding his fate in caucus last week. Beyond the implications for the the Party, the senior Congressional circuit and in fact the country, Oregonians now must mull over the idea that Holy Joe actively sought to saddle us with Gordon Smith for another six years. Ready to kick him in the jewels yet?
Apparently Merkley still isn't, as the quote above implies--but another quote offered by spokeswoman Julia Edwards hints yet again at the likelihood that after all the outrage and bluster expended in his speech, he went ahead and voted to retain Holy Joe anyway:
Edwards...has said that Merkley also expressed how much Lieberman's actions in the presidential race angered him. He did not encourage other Democrats to vote one way or the other, but did talk about moving on from the bitter fights of the campaign. [emph mine]
It seems awfully disingenuous to suggest that talk of "moving on" isn't some form of encouragement to the other Senators to allow Lieberman to retain his chair, but it also constitutes a confirmation that indeed during the caucus--not just afterwards, but before the decision had been made--Merkley in the end essentially spoke in favor of retaining him. As you may recall, both AP and Politico asserted that Merkley did not oppose him, with AP explicitly correcting the record to state it, with Politico claiming he spoke in favor but then removing his name from a group of other Lieberman supporters who spoke on his behalf.
And so despite attempts by supporters to claim that Merkley was speaking of moving on after the caucus, or that he was simply quoting Harry Reid's desire to do so, his office explicitly confirms that Merkley indeed did offer statements within caucus that should be construed as positive regarding Lieberman's fate.
As a final aside, late last week Sen Brown of Ohio revealed that he is the fourth known Senator to vote against retaining Lieberman. joining Sens. Sanders, Leahy and Boxer. While there may have been some pledge agreement uttered in caucus, it's clearly broken now, and no real rationale exists for Merkley to keep his vote private from the rest of us--unless he voted to keep him and doesn't want to blow the impression that he actually voted against.
I didn't know this was going to be published, I have no idea who the author was, and I first heard about it when it showed up in the Lefty Blogs wire. I don't think there's any new knowledge being dropped since we covered the big exdpenditures from the June report (still waiting on Q2 numbers for the Senate race that I know of; should know after the 15th), and so it's a little apropos of nothing, beyond the diarist's discovery that Chuck Schumer's DSCC laid out a lot of money to beat Jim Neal and Steve Novick with Kay Hagan and Jeff Merkley, respectively. They're not the same kind of candidate, and many consider Neal to have been far less competitive--but their discovery makes the same point we did at the time, and continue to make: why is the DSCC spending so much of our money to defeat other Democrats? For instance, wouldn't that $800,000 dropped on behalf of Merkley be really helpful right now?
In the North Carolina and Oregon Democratic US Senate primaries this year, two great progressive candidates ran for the nomination: Jim Neal (NC) and Steve Novick (OR). The DSCC, who is not supposed to pick sides in a primary, appears to have secretly funded their preferred candidates anyway (Kay Hagan (NC) and Jeff Merkley (OR)).
If the DSCC leaders personally had a preference, that’s fine. BUT IT IS NOT OK TO FUNNEL MONEY TO ONE CANDIDATE OVER ANOTHER IN A DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY!!!! That's unfairly taking sides and deliberately influencing an election, and that is not what the Democratic Party is about.
The diarist, who goes by the poetic handle of spnj889, shows exceptional acumen by quoting my story on the financials from the June reports at length, specifically the part where Chuck Schumer pays Jeff Merkley's light bill so Merkley has the money to buy expensive air time for his commercials attacking Novick.
Again, I don't think they had quite the same race in NC--but the point is that it doesn't matter. It would have been just as wrong for Schumer to funnel a bunch of money to Novick, because they suddenly felt with exposure he could really win. (Oh, to wish). It isn't any more right to spend money to defeat the less progressive Democrat, than it is to spend it defeating a less progressive one. It's using Democratic donor money to beat Democrats. Not good for the party, not good for the movements in each state. Leave them alone.
The anger at Schumer putting his thumb on various scales before primaries is not limited to Oregon, it would appear. I just happened across this diary. Just sayin', is all.
While we're certain to elicit cries that this reportage represents mere Surreptitious Succor for Smith, something else seems to be motivating Congressional Quarterly and Oregonian political reporter Jeff Mapes--twice--besides lingering bitterness over Oregon's Senate primary.
No, the noteworthy reaction is based on the release of May's expenditures in the federal races, which you can peruse here (click on the "June Monthly" link; watch out for the file size--it's 1000+ pages). Folks who want the details can read on beyond the quotes below, and there's a good lively diary at LO already on the subject (which I'm now poaching attention from; sorry Larry). But here's the professional analysis, dry from CQ and with a little more local color from Mapes. From CQ's Greg Giroux, a pretty good reporter himself:
The DSCC reported $409,000 in “independent expenditures” to produce and air a television advertisement opposing Republican Sen. Gordon Smith, whose November opponent is state House Speaker Jeff Merkley. Party committees can make unlimited independent expenditures, so long as the spending is done independently of candidates’ campaigns.
The DSCC also reported $279,000 in “coordinated expenditures,” which are limited by law but can be made in concert with candidates’ campaigns. The largest share of these funds went to assist Merkley, whom the DSCC preferred in the May 20 primary election over Steve Novick, a lawyer and liberal activist who lost by 3 percentage points. The DSCC also used coordinated funds in May to boost the campaigns of North Carolina Democrat Kay Hagan, a state senator who is her party’s nominee against Republican Sen. Elizabeth Dole ; Kentucky Democrat Bruce Lunsford, a businessman who is challenging Minority Leader Mitch McConnell ; and Landrieu, whose Republican opponent is state Treasurer John Kennedy.
Note who else got the money; we'll compare Merkley's situation to theirs, and what was done for each. But last above the fold is Mapes, including a flattered Steve Novick:
[T]he level of direct support was remarkable. All told, the committee spent $386,000 in coordinated expenditures with Merkley, which doesn't count the advertising the DSCC produced and paid for on its own. It helped give him resources Novick couldn't match.
I called up Novick, wondering if he thought he could have won if the DSCC had stayed out of the state. He said he was now backing Merkley, but he couldn't resist saying:
"I'm very proud, and I think my supporters will be extremely proud, that it took that kind of humongous effort to beat us. They clearly gambled that Jeff Merkley had a better chance to beat Gordon Smith and they had better be right...If they're not, a lot of Oregon Democrats will justly be mad at them."
As I noted in my wrap-up of the OR-Sen Democratic primary, Speaker Jeff Merkley and the Democrats have the grassroots, the issues, and the momentum. All Republican Gordon Smith has going for him is a campaign bankroll just shy of $5 million.
Smith is unquestionably vulnerable. With enough resources, Merkley will be able to cut through Smith's spin and deliver the facts of Smith's record to the voters of Oregon. But, of course, he'll need the support of people throughout the grassroots and the netroots.
To that end, I have added Merkley to the Expand the Map! ActBlue page and am announcing the "Twenty Twenties for Jeff Merkley" effort. Basically, I'm pleading with twenty of you to contribute at least twenty dollars via the Expand the Map! ActBlue page toward helping Jeff Merkley oust Gordon Smith. Can twenty of you spare twenty bucks to bounce a bum like Republican Gordon Smith from the hallowed halls of the U.S. Senate?
I think we can get twenty twenties in by the end of Memorial Day weekend. Please contribute if you can. Many thanks!
We're headed into the final weekend, and Jeff Merkley is doing everything humanly possible with every kitchen appliance he has to beat Steve Novick for the nomination. The three prongs of his support base--the DSCC network, the legislature and the beholden unions--have all come into play on his behalf over the last couple days, most urgently just now.
First, the grotesque display of wanton disregard for state autonomy shown by DSCC Chair Senator Chuck Schumer, whose response to a campaign labeled locally as "tone deaf," "disappointingly negative," and generally lacking in charisma or promise, was to double and triple down his money.
Having dropped 100K into the campaign as seed money to get it started, as much as $300,000 more has poured in since, musch of it late in the form of ads that swipe at Gordon Smith but then only mention Jeff Merkley. Here's one:
Not having a second home or Chuck Schumer to rely on, yesterday Steve Novick made one more personal appeal to supporters in the primary, giving the whip to Seabiscuit as it were: help me close strong.
It sure is working; the Novick campaign today announced a quadfecta of eye-raising numbers for the supposed underdog:
Over $1 million now raised for the cycle
Just under $139,000 in April, a monthly pace 21% higher than for the three months of Q1 (which itself was 57% higher than Q4 last year)
A whopping $30,000 raised just since MONDAY.
Over $500,000 raised so far via ActBlue
From the campaign:
Democratic U.S. Senate candidate Steve Novick's campaign announced today that it raised $138,983.98 in April 2008, passing the $1 million mark to raise $1,028,435.94 the election cycle.
"Our fundraising continued to accelerate in April with the vast majority of our support coming from right here in the state of Oregon," said Jake Weigler, Novick campaign manager. "We've proven that a grassroots campaign can attract the other green stuff too."
Novick's contributions continued to come overwhelmingly from Oregon, with $107,819.68 (77.5 percent) coming from within the state. Overall, 963 contributors gave to the campaign in April, 817 from Oregon. Previously, in the first quarter of 2008, Novick outraised primary opponent Jeff Merkley by 42 percent in itemized contributions from Oregon ($187,722.92 to $131,734.16).
Novick also continues to receive substantial online support from netroots donors. The campaign has raised over $30,000 online since Monday, bringing the total raised through the online Democratic clearinghouse ActBlue to over $500,000. Novick is currently the third highest U.S. Senate candidate in the nation on ActBlue, behind only Mark Warner of Virginia and Rick Noriega of Texas.
"When you look at how far Steve and the campaign have come, it is a rather remarkable journey," said Weigler. "He entered this race as an underdog placeholder. Today he's raised over $1 million and continues to lead in every public poll in the race.People across Oregon are ready for a principled progressive who isn't afraid to tell the truth about what it will take to turn our country around."
In a landscape where pundits report that Schumerites appear to be seeing "Jeff Merkley's national star falling," with a steep dropoff in his own fundraising since last year, perhaps someone should mention to DSCC that their candidate is being outraised in Oregon these days--and the guy they think can't hack is pulling in money essentially by word of mouth. Imagine what HE might do with a little John Kerry fundraising email love!
A little over a year ago, I started asking each of you -- one by one -- to suspend disbelief and help to do something almost ridiculously improbable. I asked you to defy conventional wisdom, the Washington, D.C. political establishment, and a good chunk of the Oregon political establishment, and help elect a guy who has never held elected office, and who has no personal wealth, to the United States Senate.
Your response has been amazing. You have stunned the political world -- not just our Oregon world, but an entire nation of political observers. You have created a new kind of political animal, an "outside-in" campaign. This is still an outsider campaign, a pickup team, a rag-tag band of idealists.
But it's an outsider campaign that has gained the respect of the insiders. This rag-tag band leads in the polls, has raised over a million dollars and gained endorsements not only from the establishment at The Portland Mercury, Willamette Week, and Ashland Daily Tidings, but from the edgy risk-takers at The Oregonian, The Medford Mail-Tribune, and East Oregonian.
I am astonished, overwhelmed, and deeply touched by everything you have done so far. You have worked miracles. But as Yogi Berra said, it ain't over 'til it's over. Right now, as we speak, the Establishment is pouring money -- out-of-state money and PAC money -- into my opponent's campaign. His TV ads are choking the airwaves. And unless we can maintain a strong TV presence of our own, and augment it with a little mail, victory could yet be snatched from our grasp.
We need to make our decisions tomorrow about what we can afford to do. If I'd spent enough years in big fat law firms (not that there's anything wrong with that), I could just write myself a $250,000 check, as my opponent has done. But I didn't. So I have to ask you, who have been so generous already, to dig deep one more time. I have to ask you to give whatever you possibly can. We're counting on you -- through your response in the next twenty-four hours -- to let us know what we can do.
We are on the verge of an historic upset. We are poised to join the New York Mets of 1969, the N.C. State Wolfpack of 1983 and the Miracle Braves of 1914 in the pantheon of underdogs. We need to stretch just a little farther to seize our place in history. I promise you that I will work my heart out for the next fifteen days. Today, I ask you to put down one more wager on Seabiscuit.
A press release noting the arrival of Senator Max Cleland, "another national Democrat arriving in Oregon to prop up Jeff Merkley's campaign" came from the Novick team yesterday. The release goes on, in a story picked up by PolitickerOR, to describe the inexplicable math on the recently-released first quarter fundraising numbers for each candidate:
A Novick campaign analysis of Merkley's 2008 first quarter financial filing found that 65 percent of Merkley's itemized individual and political action committee (PAC) contributions had come from outside the state of Oregon. Yet Merkley had previously claimed that 60 percent of his first quarter contributions had come from within the state of Oregon. In contrast, 75 percent of Novick's itemized individual and PAC contributions came from Oregon in the first quarter of 2008.
"Why they would misrepresent information that would be public in a matter of days is beyond me," said Novick campaign manager Jake Weigler. "Regardless, the fact remains that a substantial majority of Jeff Merkley's support is coming from out-of-state due to his status as the hand picked candidate of Washington insiders. Oregon voters deserve a candidate who will tell the truth, no matter what the issue." [emph mine]
{more below, incuding the surprising in-Oregon totals}
OK, so it's a bit of a hefty gig for some of you reading me now, but hey--I just got a guy in NYC interested enough in Steve to join his Facebook group, maybe he's a Pearl Jam fan! And even though you're here in Oregon or the PNW, I bet you have a relative or a college buddy or that cool professor who introduced you to dope like Donald Sutherland in Animal House, who'll be out there and would love a scarce ducat like this. Or maybe you'll be out there, or haven't planned a vacation yet? I hear NYC and DC are actually OK tourist destinations.
This is easy money for Steve if the right people hear about it, so spread the word...
"It raises a real question," said Jake Weigler, Novick's campaign manager. "With all the support of the Democratic establishment in D.C., if Merkley has to borrow money to talk to voters, what chance does he have against Gordon Smith?
Amidst all the other things going wrong with the Merkley campaign at the moment--flirting with an international incident against the Chinese, suing to prevent publishing Oregon's written laws, watching donors notable and otherwise ditch the campaign, returning money to said donors---an even weirder thing was announced today:
Democratic U.S. Senate candidate Jeff Merkley has taken out a $250,000 loan on a house he owns in Washington, D.C., to give a boost to his campaign as Oregon's May 20 primary draws closer.
The money will be used to "communicate with Oregon voters," according to a campaign news release, which generally translates into buying more TV time to run campaign ads. Merkley, who is speaker of the Oregon House, is not widely known around the state.
Candidates often loan their campaigns money. Sometimes, it's a sign of potential financial trouble. Merkley spokesman Matt Canter said that's not the case this time.
"The feeling is right now, Speaker Merkley's campaign has a unique opportunity to communicate with an incredible number of Oregonians because of the expected record turnout in this primary," Canter said.
I hope he didn't get stuck with some crazy balloon rate!
Busy day yesterday for the Senate candidates; both frontrunners released their money figures for 1Q and continued prepping for tonight's big statewide KGW/TheO debate at 7pm, Merkley released an ad, and today a candidate newly steps onto the big stage.
First, to update yesterday's piece on Novick's money, there was a slight math error that overestimated the full-campaign total by $4K from what the campaign initially reported. The actual total is $889,000, give or take a couple bucks. Later in the day Jeff Mapes at The O chimed in with Merkley's totals; they're lower than I expected and reflect a 26% dropoff from last quarter:
New fund-raising numbers show that House Speaker Jeff Merkley is continuing to rake in more money than his chief primary rival, Portland consultant Steve Novick.
But Merkley's edge is not so dramatic that he can simply swamp Novick with money. Instead, the difference may come down in part to the divergent advertising strategies the two candidates are pursuing.
First, the basic numbers. Merkley's campaign announced that he had raised $453,000 in the first quarter, for a total of $1.37 million for his entire campaign. He had $474,000 cash on hand as of March 31.
Mapes also notes that Merkley is running his ads, the second of which began airing today, Novick is opting to use his two previously filmed ads and save production costs for other potential spending later in the month--new ads, or mail, or GOTV? Nobody's tellin'. I'll show you Merkley's Acme Commercia Inc. boilerplate masterpiece on the jump, as well as an interesting profile of new "viable candidate".
Democratic U.S. Senate candidate Steve Novick's campaign announced today that it raised slightly over $346,000 in the first quarter of 2008 – a 57 percent increase over the last quarter of 2007.
"Along with the latest polling data showing Steve with a double-digit lead in the primary, these numbers confirm that we continue to build momentum with strong grassroots support from across Oregon," said Novick campaign manager Jake Weigler. "We are confident that we will be able to counter Jeff Merkley's out-of-state fundraising advantage in the primary and offer a strong challenge to Gordon Smith in the general election."
Novick's contributions came overwhelming from Oregon, with slightly over 77 percent of money raised in the quarter coming from in the state. Novick also continued to lead in online fundraising, passing 2,500 contributions and $400,000 total raised on the Democratic online clearinghouse ActBlue. Novick was the 7th highest candidate on ActBlue in the first quarter of 2008.
The campaign finished the primary with over $195,000 cash on hand, which does not include $133,000 already committed towards future television advertising. The campaign has now raised over $893,000 for the election cycle.
The goal a year ago as I understand it, was to run an unconvential, honest campaign and try to do it with around $900,000 or a million bucks. He always knew he'd be outspent running against the state and national establishment, but a million bucks was enough to get his face out there and let his message sink in with a change-hungry electorate.
With just under 40 days left in the primary campaign, it looks as if Novick has done it, defying the expectations of an awful lot of pundits and doubters. It's not easy to raise money when the party apparatus is telling donors "No no no, give to THIS guy, that guy's never gonna win." But Steve's pretty persuasive, it appears--and with the polling odds now running in his favor, I wonder how it's affecting money being raised in its aftermath.
In any case, this is a very solid number for Novick, and backs up the idea that he gained support in the last quarter as the campaign went into full gear. It will be interesting to see Merkley's number, still unreleased. Surely it will exceed $350,000, but by how much, and at what pace to his own fundraising? Recall that January was a slow month for Team Merkley, as much as 50% off the fourth quarter monthly pace. That's a tough month for all candidates however, so perhaps he bounced back, We'll see.
I'd already passed on the news of the $50,000 goal being reached for Steve Novick's campaign at the end of the 1st financial quarter Monday night. I said at the beginning of the week that Novick's army really seems to understand the significance of the end of quarter, and when it's time to really dig and make the number look strong. And you surely did that, eventually raising over $60,000 during that period, just by digging deep yourself, and then getting the word out.
I don't think there's any doubt the final number for the quarter will be an improvement on 4th quarter 2007, which is actually pretty impressive, given the bad month of January and the short month of February. Recall that Jeff Merkley's January was about 50% off from their quarter average in Q4, based on their own reports of progress towards $1mil total. By the late stages of the month, the campaign was reporting only about $90,000 in receipts--after posting a $200,000 per month average in Q4. To match his previous number then, would require two $250,000 months. Regardless of what the final totals are, if Merkley is down and Novick is substantially up, that will be a story.
To fill you in on the last stages of Monday night: when we left you during the afternoon with the goal achieved, there were 2,589 donors who'd pushed the total online haul to about $410,000. As of midnight Thursday, a few more had straggled in and it's now 2,644 donors and $417,000. Don't stop. Don't. Stop! That is just fantastic. Specifically through Loaded Orygun, we're now up to 36 donors and $1,770, with $1,015 coming in that last week or so. It came from around the country and even Japan. (An American abroad, Mr. FEC snoop!)
And what's most impressive to me is that, as usual, Steve is succeeding despite the odds, despite massive structural barriers to his success. There shouldn't be any money flowing to a guy challenging the legislative head of the state party. There shouldn't be anyone of measure like popular former governors and the most influential union in the state endorsing the guy.
And because he's in a contested primary, his natural base of appeal--the national progressive netroots--is ALSO closed off to him, financially. As I wrote at Daily Kos Tuesday, Steve's 1Q performance as the #6 Congressional earner (and #2 Senate candidate) is all the more unbelievable because all of the people surrounding him were the beneficiaries of organized, national netroots appeals. Literally hundreds of thousands of eyes a day were seeing the appeals from places like Daily Kos and Firedoglake.
And that is wonderful. God bless the progressive donor base! No one would begrudge those great candidates their chance to get a high profile ask on their behalf. But Steve got none of that--and yet his numbers match right up with those who did. Because of you.
We gave away the tote bag, we gave away a couple of beers, and Hans and I popped in $160 in matching funds for new donors. That offer is still good for 4 more newcomers--hell, let's reset the clock and make it 10 again. For the next 10 people to donate $20 through our site for the first time, I'll kick in $10 myself.
And we now have Novick T-shirts! $30 gets you a piece of history, pick it up or have it shipped. I've got at least seven of those babies! And last but not least, let's remember that the SCROTUM POUCH is still available for $100 or more. Start two conversations--what the hell is THAT...and where did you get it?
Wow, didn't take me long to back into busking mode, did it? Relax, you've earned the break on your wallet for political stuff for a while. But it's here, and if you've got some extra after payday, y'know....
Thanks once again for your help and forbearance during "pledge week." You might hear from me again towards the end of the month, depending on things...but right now just thank you. And there's work to be done!
We did it! Thanks to you, we've exceeded our $50,000 fundraising goal for the end of the quarter ... as of this writing, we're at $52,000 and climbing.
From all of us on staff, thank you from the bottom of our hearts. We couldn't run this campaign without you.
If you haven't given yet, it's not too late to push us higher before the end of the quarter. Any donation between now and midnight, even a small one, counts towards our quarterly filing, and helps build momentum for this true progressive campaign.
Sincerely,
The Staff at Novick for Senate
Awesome. Just awesome. I'm looking at Steve's ActBlue totals this afternoon, and he's shot up again in the last 12 hours--as of 2pm, he'd added another 36 donors and a pretty stunning $6,754 online. That's an average of almost $200---nice! And when you consider we spent half that time sleeping...!
Thanks to each and every one of you who put their money down on the barrelhead and made a strong statement for honest change. Since we started the push on March 17th, LO contributors have pumped $1,015 into Steve's account. That's right, over a grand in two weeks, just from the folks keeping up with Steve at Loaded Orygun. I'm getting all verklempt!
But as the campaign points out, while goals are great motivators, just because the goal has been reached for today doesn't mean the need for cash is over. Steve WILL be outspent in this race, unless Servants of Schumer stop making their appeals for Merkley and the party elite suddenly catches on that their guy isn't exactly exciting the masses. Seems unlikely, so let's assume it won't happen.
What's that mean? It means every dollar counts, above and beyond that $50,000. Show the DC pundits that the REAL grassroots are coming through for Steve, without help from the bigshots and party hacks. Make your gift by midnight. You can still win prizes from LO--and let's get four more new donors, to trigger those matching funds. How high can he go? You decide.
It's been a pretty sweet day for Steve Novick, both here at LO and overall, finishing off another strong week of positive media and fundraising. I know we've been beating you senseless with nothing but asks and stuff about Steve, and even if you're a fan it's not always what you want to read. But repetition works. Don't believe me? A donor writes:
I should mention that I was impelled to give after seeing several Novick headlines in my Firefox live bookmark RSS feed. Each time I scanned the feed and saw the headlines, I remembered that I meant to donate more.
So thanks for beating that drum. Go Steve!
All it takes is one donor who got reminded, and reminded...and reminded, and then finally found both the time and the gumption to go ahead and click, for my effort to be worth it. We're all busy people, with many different tugs at our pocketbooks and attention. I know I certainly have had charitable intentions in mind a number of times in the past, and just never came through. Some would say that means you really didn't care enough to give, and perhaps sometimes that's true. Other times, however, life just intrudes, and I get that. So I'll remind you, if you don't mind being reminded. It's important enough to make it OK for a while that I bug you, I hope. Thanks for your forebearance.
And now onto the news. Remember this from as far back as yesterday?
Just 24 donors to 2,500 online for Steve!
Just $4,150 $3,722 to $400,000 online for Steve!
Just $65 to reach $1,500 from the LO community!
I even had to update once already later last night, because money had come in. By tonight, all three mileposts have been smashed, barreled through and pretty well obliterated. As of 10:30 tonight we have:
2,54950 2,553 donors online for Steve
$403,124374 $403,499 total online for Steve
$1,745 from the LO community
So that's 734 79 donors, $6,896 $7,221 overall and $305 from LO since last night, if you're counting. Hell yeah, people! If they're not over their $50,000 goal by now, they certainly will be.
That's what we've come to expect from those who admire Steve and want his brand of politics changing things in Washington, but it's still stunning to me to observe ordinary folks like the ones contributing through our page, just forking over literally hundreds of their own dollars, in hopes that Steve will use the money to ward off Jeff Merkley's smears and let his own message ring true. But that's what you're doing, and I just have to say bless you.
There's something else that's remarkable about Steve's strong run again at the end of a quarter, when his network really starts to reach out on Steve's behalf. (Ask anyone who knows a Novick supporter!) . I think I said yesterday that he'd been in the top 5 of Act Blue's fundraisers for much of the last week until about Thursday.
That's when the folks at a couple of huge sites like Daily Kos and Firedoglake put out their quarter-end appeals for the Blue Majority slate, which features some great candidates in their own right--folks like Darcy Burner and Eric Massa and Gary Trauner and Dan Seals, et al. I love what Blue Majority is doing, but clearly they have an immense pool of donors to appeal to, which is why four of the five top 5 at ActBlue are now Blue Majority beneficiaries.
Steve's in a tough position. He's bucking the political establishment at home, and while he's a more natural candidate for the netroots, on balance, than Merkley. his status in a contested primary with a party-backed candidate makes folks wary of supporting either guy. The national netroots leaders smartly rely on signals from the ground , and what they see is a hotly contested race between progressives in Oregon. So even if they might prefer Steve, it seems like counterproductive money either way.
But Merkley has his Friends of Chuck campaign, Max Cleland being the latest tapped to do an ask for the Party on Merkley's behalf. So how does Steve drawi in donors and money faster than I can keep up (I've redone the totals twice since starting this thread)? You, and you, and you over there. And oh yes, both of you for sure. Not that guy over there with the rainstick, but the one behind him, definitely.
It's people asking people they know, "Can you help Steve? He's it. He's the real one." That's what's making his number climb. Not suits and PAC lunches or million-voice megaphones. Just people who know special candidates when they see one, and can't help but talk about him to unsuspecting friends and strangers.
Wait until May and we do this thing. You're going to see something catch fire then, nationwide. You think if Jeff Merkley wins our primary he's going to do half the news shows in America (having already done a half dozen of them if he's Steve?) With Novick as the nominee, would it surprise anyone to see him on the cover of Time or in a 60 Minutes slot or relaxing with Matt on Today or Dave at night?
And that's not just bullshit face time, that's a powerful message: in Oregon, there is a guy they are backing who is just like this election-- something different, something BETTER. There hasn't been an interview yet where Steve hasn't gotten time to talk about his brand of politics. And you know, not for nothing, this is the kind of stuff Senators DO these days. Isn't national media presence and demeanor a valid credential for office? Most of all, visibility drives interest, and interest drives money--money Steve will need against Gordon Smith.
If you help me put forth Steve Novick as the nominee, I can almost guarantee you he will be one of a few nationally who--under an Obama Presidential campaign--will represent an entirely different group of politicians for office, in a notably progressive shift hoping to catch tails behind him. Why on earth would we pass that kind of leadership up, for good old Jeff Merkley, one foot on the dais in Denver?
Just three days remain to do your part for REAL change, REAL honesty! Please give now, this weekend. It's easy--grab a credit or debit card--and secure. And you'll be a part of Oregon's return to a proud history of leading-edge politicians like Wayne Morse and Tom McCall. Whatever you can spare, it will help Steve. $30, $20, $10--even $5, if that's where you're at. More dollars of course enables more good work, but this is also about pure support--people who stand with Steve and agree that it's time to stop farting around and change the way we do business in Washington.
So remember the last week of December, when Steve asked for $30,000 to make a strong finish for the last quarter? You gave $35,000, if I remember. So now here we are three months later, and with the continued national publicity and increased buzz about the campaign, it made sense to raise the bar a little and shoot for $50,000.That's a lot of coin--and it represents a $600,000 quarter repeated across 12 weeks.
But you know what? Folks are coming through again. At last report, Steve stood just $8,700 from the goal. Just yesterday the campaign was about $24,000 away, so some great progress has been made. But can we keep it up? I say yes.
In LO fundraising news, our benefactor Hans, who stepped up to pledge $10 match for the next 10 new donors, had an OFI* moment and kicked in the whole thing, all $100 up front. I've actually pushed $40 across to match our four donors from earlier this week, who--like Hans--I'm going to consider new on faith. Now , this means we're waiting on six other people to come through and bail US out. Hans and I are pledged for $200 total; if you can put just $20 in the kitty, that additional money can flow for Steve, just because you gave.
And did I mention we still have prizes? Tote bags, scrotum pouches, beer--never has such an accumulation of "thank you" gifts graced a Senate campaign, surely. (Well, maybe in Australia they ALL do it).
If you're a fan of milestones, we've got THREE of them:
Just 24 donors to 2,500 online for Steve!
Just $4,150 $3,722 to $400,000 online for Steve!
Just $65 to reach $1,500 from the LO community!
$400,000 is a big number for online giving; Steve's been a champ on ActBlue since he signed up on it, and for much of this week he's been in the "hot 5" pages. By comparison, Jeff Merkley's amazing grassroots community has just under $1,100 donors and $131,000. (And as long as we're comparing netroots presence: Steve's profile--286 friends; Merkley's profile--161 friends. Steve's group--635 members; Merkley's group--487 members. On MySpace Steve has 128 friends, Jeff has...four. Four?)
Well, it's certainly going to be an exciting Democratic Primary here in Oregon, with a number of statewide races up for grabs, and of course the election of delegates for the Presidential nomination. Folks in Oregon are certainly pumped, and it's causing a flood of new Democratic registrants that are not reciprocated on the other side--here's the activity just over a ten day period in March, around the time Obama was rumored to be--and then turned out to be--coming to Oregon:
Non-affiliated to Democrat: 1,137 Republican to Democrat: 743 Pacific Green to Democrat: 92 Other to Democrat: 85 Republican to Non-affiliated: 66 Non-affiliated to Republican: 65 Democrat to Republican: 60
Jiminy Christmas! Just on Dem-GOP switches, the Democrats were a net +683 in 10 days--and they picked up about 17 times as many non-affiliated voters, a net advantage of 1,072 voters. That's over 1,700 additional votes across the state for Democratic candidates...in TEN DAYS. Looking at the larger picture, the Republican votes may turn out to be spoilers for Hillary Clinton--but it seems unlikely the horde of independents have the same plan.
It would seem much of the excitement is attributable to folks registering in order to vote for Obama, although no doubt many are interested in a good race and have made a choice to be part of the contest, rather than a previously abiding preference for one candidate or the other. They are participating because they feel a sense of history. Whatever the reason, there will be a flood of new ballots in the Democratic primary leading up to May 20th. (They go out late April-early May).
This is of crucial relevance both to the state and national Democratic party, and the candidates running for office on the Democratic ticket underneath the Presidential pick. Senate, Secretary of State, and several legislative primaries will all happen on the same ballot--including what amounts to the general election for AG--and those races will see spillover.
The extent and character of Obama's potential coattails is of paramount curiosity to people like John Kroger and Steve Novick, I wager. Perhaps more importantly, the work of finding potential new Democratic voters for the general becomes a matter of checking the primary rolls. If they're not going to vote Democratic in May, they're probably not gonna do it in November--but if a serious chunk of them DO come back, the Republican Party will see deep and unexpected losses.
All of which kind of makes it a shame that before the votes are counted, the nominee will be definitively presumed and declared, Oregon's delegates once again a superfluous formality, adding to the winner's already decisive lead with little fanfare.
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